Climate Letter #1406

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The rise in the atmospheric CO2 level has not slowed down at all (Reuters).  The commitments that were made under the Paris Agreement in 2015 have had no effect on the trend, which continues to rise at a rate of better than 2 ppm per year.  “…the impending overshoot of CO2 targets is a sign of how far off course the energy system is from the objective set by policymakers; how much warming is now likely if things continue on the present trend; and how much effort will have to be made if policymakers want to avoid this outcome.”  John Kemp, who wrote this story, has presented straight information, not his own opinion.  Opinions can be found (which I endorse) that the Paris Agreement was much too generous to begin with, when setting up its carbon budgets.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-energy-climatechange-kemp/column-climate-change-targets-are-slipping-out-of-reach-idUKKCN1RT0P0

–All the CO2 numbers can be found in charts at the different links on this website:
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How scientists are talking with each other about future expectations for global warming (Science).  This article is mainly about uncertainties that actually exist within the community.  Some scientists tend to like being out in front with new information while others are more inclined to wait for proof of almost 100% certainty.  As one of the latter group put it, “Even so, the model results remain disconcerting, Gettelman says. The planet is already warming faster than humans can cope with, after all. “The scary part is these models might be right…Because that would be pretty devastating.” https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/new-climate-models-predict-warming-surge
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Results from an important new method for measuring Earth’s surface “skin” temperature by satellite.  Data was compiled over fifteen years, from 2003 through 2017, and compared with the results from leading networks of surface-based stations which measure air temperatures above land surfaces blended with bulk data taken from ocean water surfaces.  While the two methods are totally independent from each other the comparative results showed a high level of compatibility, with one exception.  In areas like some polar regions that are hard to reach from land the satellites came up with slightly warmer temperature increases, which may prove to be relevant. “Our work also shows that complementary satellite-based surface temperature analyses serve as an important validation of surface-based estimates. They may point the way to make improvements in surface-based products that can perhaps be extended back many decades.”  This new tool should be of great use for both past and future data improvement.
–The full study has open access and is readable.  Scroll down to see the chart material.
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A completely different satellite test took measurements of Earth’s gravitational field over almost exactly the same fifteen-year time frame.  Highlights have now been announced, showing information that is not particularly dramatic but will be very useful as a base for future reference as this fast-moving century unfolds.
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The perils farmers face as their soils are exposed to extreme floodwaters (The Conversation).  Two professors of soil management describe the nature of the damages, the likelihood of more frequent occurrences and also some ways to improve on current practices, which may be unaffordable for many farmers.  “Until improvements in management practices are resolved, future flooding will likely continue to leave large numbers of Midwest fields vulnerable to producing lower crop yields or no crop at all.”
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From Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, news that lithium-ion batteries can be improved over what they are today, including faster charging rates.  That is good news for EV owners.
Carl

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