Jared Diamond has written a review of Bill McKibben’s new book about climate change (New York Times). The review is headlined as, “Striking a Balance Between Fear and Hope on Climate Change,” making it not just a book review but more of an exposition of Diamond’s own approach to the way climate change should be taught to the public. That alone makes it interesting as a sort of clash between titans, except that McKibben was given no space for rebuttal. I think Diamond had the wrong perspective. McKibbin’s role in public discussion has always been the making of a full and proper evaluation of risk and the correct level of response required to meet that risk. In his case the idea of “balance” has always been about locating the point where risk evaluation is stated in a truly complete and realistic manner but does not morph into exaggeration or unjustified alarmism. I think he has performed that task masterfully well throughout his career, better than any scientist I can think of, including such figures as Peter Wadhams and James Hansen. His early stress on the need to keep the CO2 level below 350 ppm has never been disproved. We are paying the price for not doing so today—most notably in the polar regions—and we have learned that bringing the level back to 350 is in fact all but hopeless, barring some kind of miracle. Nor will the actions we take today do much to staunch ongoing deterioration for the next 30 to 40 years, thus enclosing the life expectancy of most adults, but proper action could still be of substantial help to younger and later generations. Regardless of one’s personal angst, it is perfectly all right to give those folks a hand, in a calm and positive sort of way.
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Here is a story on the hopeful side, about a solution to CO2 sequestering using advanced technology (The Guardian). The lady behind this idea is a realist, and has a good attitude. “We can’t continue to farm the way we farm any more. It can feed 8 to 10 billion people but 50 years from now, there won’t be any good soil left so you’re just putting the disaster off…..The climate urgency is there. Every week there’s a new climate disaster. How can we get there? We can’t really get there any faster. I don’t know if we can do it, but I want to be part of the solution. I don’t just want to sit around and complain.”
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Persuasive new evidence about the basic cause of Earth’s greatest extinction event. “Researchers say mercury buried in ancient rock provides the strongest evidence yet that volcanoes caused the biggest mass extinction in the history of the Earth.” The mercury signature produced by volcanoes is comparable to the iridium deposits released by asteroids. “The eruptions propelled as much as 3 million cubic kilometers of ash high into the air over this extended period…..In fact, Algeo said, the Siberian Traps eruptions spewed so much material in the air, particularly greenhouse gases, that it warmed the planet by an average of about 10 degrees centigrade.”
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A new study takes the first hard look at the carbon footprint caused by the life cycle of plastics. Greenhouse gases are emitted at every step along the way, production, use and disposal, in an amount equal to about 5% of annual CO2 emissions by humans, or 1.8 billion tons per year, and demand keeps growing. The authors also looked at potential solutions, which are all complicated in some way. “The study’s results underscore just how large an effort is needed to meaningfully reduce greenhouse gas emissions…The public really has to understand the magnitude of the challenge that we are facing.”
Carl