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The latest climate models are raising estimates for climate sensitivity (Carbon Brief). These estimates are produced by qualified research centers all over the world and must at least be taken seriously by policy decision-makers. For a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, once equilibrium has been established, the new estimates are showing a range of global average temperature increases from 2.8C on the low side to highs of 5.8C. That compares with a range of 1.5-4.5C that the IPCC used as its norm for the 2015 assessment report. If the new numbers are accepted, then everything we have been told about climate targets and the carbon budget will have to be revised, and there will be calls for a much greater sense of urgency to act.
–Comment: My own view, which has been expressed many times in these letters, is that the average global temperature increase, now 1.1C, is highly weighted in favor of air above ocean surfaces and does not properly express what is happening to temperatures above land, which are growing much faster. This link, from James Hansen’s website, clearly shows how much these two trends have differed over the last four decades: http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/land+SST_12+132rm_1880-1920base.pdf
The reason for the difference is simply that ocean surfaces continually lose heat to the cooler waters below while land surfaces are not cooled in any like manner. A state of equilibrium will not be reached until regular water temperature gradients below the ocean surface have been restored and this abnormal cooling effect has been eliminated. That will take at the very least a hundred years, at which point the ocean air trend will have caught up with land. As the chart indicates, the land average has already passed 1.5C, and we are only a little more than half way to a double for CO2 from the accepted starting point.
One additional thought—I have been wondering what it would mean for flooding and rainfall events when ocean surface warming, with its attendant evaporation, finally catches up with land. And what about the streams of precipitable water that have been growing more powerful as they push their way into higher latitudes, amplifying regional air temperatures? (See the last few letters for examples.)
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On that last note, there is something I noticed this morning in the weather maps that I want to show. Open this link and click on the round image until the Pacific Ocean comes into view….. https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#pwtr….That big mushroom you see on the left, with a bright blue outline, represents a powerful stream of precipitable water carried northward by its own air currents in the upper atmosphere. I believe it has probably broken through a weak spot in a long and robust stretch of jetstream, cutting it in half. For a better view, scroll down to the bottom chart and click on it once, and then click the Jetstream link. The high Pacific Ocean is now getting a good deal of extra greenhouse warming as a result, and it will stay for awhile.
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The flooding situation in the US this spring is unprecedented (AP). “More than 200 million Americans are at risk for some kind of flooding, with 13 million of them at risk of major inundation.”
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Farmers in the Midwest face decades of recovery as flooding strips away crucial soil (Earther). “Even after the floodwater recedes, the region’s farms and the soil they’re built on could face a long road to recovery, spanning years or decades.”
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An update on Lake Chad, in central Africa, as it continues to dry up. The lake has shrunk by around 90 percent since the 1960s. Millions of people depend on it for sustenance.
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The Exxon Valdez oil spill off the coast of Alaska happened on March 24, 30 years ago (Hakai magazine). The author of this article provides an expert view of the environmental recovery, largely a success but lingering wounds are still apparent. Plastic waste and other kinds of damage are now moving in.
Carl