Climate Letter #1387

A landmark study about the rapid decline of the natural world will be published in May (Huffpost UK).  “The study from the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform On Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), expected to run to over 8,000 pages, is being compiled by more than 500 experts in 50 countries. It is the greatest attempt yet to assess the state of life on Earth and will show how tens of thousands of species are at high risk of extinction, how countries are using nature at a rate that far exceeds its ability to renew itself, and how nature’s ability to contribute food and fresh water to a growing human population is being compromised in every region on earth.”  This post has an excellent introduction, calling the subject “a crisis even bigger than climate change.”  The group behind the study  is described as “the IPCC of biodiversity.”

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If you have not seen news about the disastrous cyclone that struck the west coast of Africa, here is a summary report from BBC:   “…..one of the worst weather-related disasters ever to hit the southern hemisphere.”
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The dangers posed by ongoing growth and development of natural gas resources are not well-recognized (Renew Economy).  Two Australian professors give a full summary accounting of what is going on today, without much public opposition to this so-called “green” fossil fuel.  Among the things noted, “There is now increasing scientific evidence that the overall potential of GHG from gas is much the same as for coal.”
–A perfect example of how this problem unfolds, here in the US (Yale e360).  From a union leader, “I’ve never seen this many jobs for construction workers in western Pennsylvania, and I’ve been a steamfitter for 45 years. Natural gas is going to be bigger than the steel industry back 30 or 40 years ago. There’s 50 years to 100 years of natural gas in this tri-state region. This thing is not going away.”
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There are over 1000 possible ways for policy makers at all levels of government to tackle climate change in a legally proper and bipartisan manner (The Hill).  A book that describes all of them, with contributions from many qualified authors, has been published by the Environmental Law Institute, and is widely available in several formats.
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A major excursion of precipitable water (PW) is adding heat to a large swathe of the Eastern Hemisphere.  My letter two days ago described an excursion that brought a massive temperature anomaly to western Canada, which has grown even larger.  There is a similar but even stronger excursion happening which has its greatest effects on the other side of the world.  It is easy to trace the way it unfolds, emerging from the evaporation of warm ocean waters surrounding both sides of Central America.  Use this link to observe the spike that proceeds from there diagonally across the Atlantic Ocean, at first in blue and then dark brown, crossing the UK as it curls into northern Europe:
Now click on the Jetstream link to view the long and strong jetstream section that is perfectly placed to give this particular PW stream a ride, as hitchhiker.  Also click on the Precipitation/Clouds link to see how the PW is raining out all along the trail, which is why it loses weight (and changes color code).  When the jetstream finally weakens there is still plenty of H2O left, very much on the move, and it spreads out over thousands of square miles in several directions with nothing in the way.  Now look at the Temperature Anomaly link to see how great the effects are over that entire area.  When you can double the PW in place by adding only 2 to 5 kilograms to what was there before it is not hard to get temperature increases of 5 to 10 degrees C, and even more when you can push a kilo or two almost all the way to the pole.  This is heady stuff, a kind of trip that the scientists’ climate models are not ready to deal with yet, so we don’t hear much talk about it.  All starting from waters near Central America.
Carl

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