Today I have a fascinating story to tell. It builds on what I wrote about precipitable water (or just PW) in yesterday’s letter, which I hope you have read. The chart images keep changing every day, so any references quickly get stale. Today we will go on a journey which takes us through a number of different weather maps on the Climate Reanalyzer website, always focused one region, centered on North America. The entire site has an incredible amount of information waiting to be analyzed. I have studied enough to become deeply interested in learning more about the nature and power of PW, for reasons of a kind you will be seeing today. Start with this link, https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom, which like it did yesterday again shows how Canada is divided into two extreme temperature anomalies, side by side. Now we will look for evidence of where that very strange warm anomaly came from.
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Go to the PW link. On the very left side, right in the center, you will see a small patch of dusty blue emerging from brighter blue in a tropical part of the Pacific Ocean. This is a strong stream of PW that has found an opening to a route that leads to higher latitudes. See how it next follows a narrow track that turns and heads straight north, all the way to Alaska, changing to a dark brown color along the way. When it hits the coast the stream runs into a mountain range and its color lightens up. That lighter area next spreads into Alaska and the Arctic Ocean and also converts in part into another shade of light brown which heads back south into Canada. The brownish path finally comes to an end around the North Dakota border, exuding lighter shades outwardly along the way. The entire track can easily be seen forming a giant figure ‘S’ from start to finish, composed from concentrations of PW that keep shifting in strength. Even while the concentration grew weaker it remained strong enough to create those huge air temperature anomalies, especially over land. What is really intriguing is how the unusually warm temperatures that entered and passed through much of western Canada made their way down from the north, against all expectations. This could not have happened without a powerful greenhouse agent having been put in place to do the warming while it followed a most unusual pathway..
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There is more that needs telling, and that is about the role of the jetstream as an influence that regularly guides the way PW is distributed across the northern latitudes. Basically, high air currents containing PW are unable to cross over strong segments of jetstream wind, but they can slip through passages composed from complete breaks or spots that are very weak. They can also get picked up and carried along by jetstream currents that are moving in a compatible way. Both of these circumstances can be seen to have happened here. Click on the Jetstream Wind Speed link and start looking at the center left, where there is a wink spot between two strong wind segments. Our PW stream track broke through at that very spot, enabling it to head northward, where it quickly found and became attached to a weak segment of jetstream that propelled it onward to the coast of Alaska. Soon after, for whatever reason, the jetstream abruptly made a turn, strengthened, and headed south, all with much of its passenger still on board and able to further spread its power to bring warmth.
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Now, just for fun, click on the Precipitation/Cloud link and see how a great deal of water was rained out of this stream during the first leg away from its Pacific starting point and continuing to the Alaskan coast, plus a lesser amount of snow in some places as it spread out thereafter. You can also check out Sea Level Pressure, which became factored in as a component which helped the entire track took shape.
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Before leaving the maps, take another look at the Anomaly map just to the north and west of the North Pole, where a cold blue streak cuts through two major regions of extreme warmth. The temperature difference is about 15C, or 27F, in that short space. Then go to the PW map and look closely at the gray shades. It looks to me like a change from about 1 kg of PW to just 2-3 kg can be enough to account for a relatively substantial change in temperatures. That leads one to believe that the greenhouse warming effect of PW, like that of CO2, is logarithmic, thus acting the strongest at low concentrations and progressively weakening at higher ones. Once PW reaches concentrations of 60-70 kg per square meter of column depth, as it ordinarily does around the equator, it will have lost nearly all of its power to raise air temperatures any further, but in the polar regions the exact opposite is true.
Carl