Growing risk of a “monster” El Nino later this year (The Sydney Morning Herald). This fine piece of journalism pulls together all the latest data and expert opinions on the subject, well-charted. Australians are particularly worried because of the dangers of extreme drought and repeated bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef. “They considered parallel years, such as 2014 when a near-El Nino was reached before conditions revived a year later, creating one of the three most powerful such events in the past half century…..There is more heat now below the surface waiting to be tapped than there was in early 2015…..If westerly wind bursts of sufficient amplitude, duration and zonal extent develop along the equator in the next couple of months, 2019-20 could be very exciting.” For the globe as a whole, more surface warming along the equator in the Pacific produces a spike in the average air temperature for the year plus many other costly weather events in far-flung locations.
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Extra comment: In order to round out the information given about the warmth of the surface layer of the Pacific Ocean, please take a look at this image (in the lower chart) from the Climate Reanalyzer, a top quality set of weather maps produced by the University of Maine:
Anomaly charts can be misleading in a sense because they may fail to show where today’s warmest surfaces are actually located. The deep red spots that you see are mostly located to the west of the dateline and remain heavy when extended further west over much of the Indian Ocean, but that is not for the most part an anomaly. Click on the SST Anomaly maps to see the difference. The warmest surfaces in the tropical oceans have the highest evaporation rates, making them the leading source—by far—of precipitable water in the upper atmosphere. If you click on the link to Precipitable Water maps, again looking at the lower chart, the match of its strength with surface water temperatures becomes obvious. Precipitable water (PW) happens to be not just a primary source of global precipitation but also a vastly important greenhouse “gas,” with gas in quotes because not all of the water remains gaseous after the original vapor has risen to the upper atmosphere. It converts into foggy or cloudy droplets, and drops, and icy crystals, of water that all continue to contribute to the greenhouse effect before ending up as precipitation.
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Once PW has risen high enough it wants to fan out and work its way toward higher latitudes, either north or south, bringing the greenhouse effect along with it. Here is an animated chart of the course it has taken over the last five days:
The blue stuff, which is the highest up, generally wants to spread while moving from west to east, like the jetstream, and at the same time angling off toward the poles. The chosen pathways are always temporary, they are unevenly distributed, and the PW is constantly becoming more diluted as it spreads, all of which has consequences for air temperatures at Earth’s surface directly below. I think it can be shown that the greenhouse warming down below, as directly provided by PW, takes effect practically in real time, with results that can indeed be amazingly strong.
Now go back to the previous link, the Climate Reanalyzer, and click on 2m Temperature Anomaly. Just today, looking at all of Canada, you can see that half the nation has a very cold anomaly and the other half very cold, side by side, with almost nothing in between. The maximum temperature difference between the two anomalies, even at the same latitude, is more than 30 degrees C, or as much as 50 degrees F. Now go to the PW map and see how great the contrast in moisturized air is between almost exactly these same two divisions. That is not a coincidence, because the same sort of relationship can be observed over and over again most of the time in most parts of the world. PW is an amazingly strong greenhouse “gas,” depending on its presence or non-presence, which happens to be extremely inconsistent because of changing flow patterns in the atmosphere of the upper latitudes. I will have more to say about this later, because this is a subject not often explained that has a bearing not just on day-to-day weather changes but most likely on our climate future as well.
Carl