Climate Letter #2088

One part of the whole story I wrote about yesterday is well-illustrated, but I can’t reproduce the imagery on this website because everything depends on movement.  Is it really true that the total amount of overhead precipitable water (PW) above a given location can vary by multiple amounts from one day to the next?  That was my claim, based on a fundamental understanding that atmospheric rivers (ARs) are composed of nothing but PW, and the amount of PW content in certain parts of a moving stream may be of extremely high concentration.  If it is true that every bit of PW in the atmosphere generates a greenhouse energy effect, which is a separate subject of investigation, then it behooves us to learn everything there is to know about the composition and movement of ARs as a category.  This is a task for science to be engaged in, but science has so far been mostly interested in ARs of very large size, with a focus on the extraordinary amount of rainfall they produce upon arrival over continental land after journeying across an ocean. “Pineapple express” is a term often used to describe this phenomenon.

Historically, no such common name has been given to ordinary flows of streaming PW that are located in the same upper part of the atmosphere, most of which are smaller in size and less spectacular as well as more variable in overall behavior.  There is no real systematic study that includes details of their origin, how, when, where and in what amounts they produce rainfall, and the total extent of their geographical distribution.  I have seen some signs of a broadening of interest, but only a beginning.  Meanwhile, the rest of us are at liberty to offer suggestions, based on our own interests and observations.  Toward that end, I would highly emphasize study of the website containing continuous 5-day animation of measurements of total PW across the globe as a foundation piece:  http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php. Open it now, and I will give you some ideas about what to look for.

You will see see a wide band of very heavy concentrations of PW close to the Equator, full of movement that doesn’t really go anywhere. This is what I call the tropical belt. Along its borders, in each hemisphere, at around 30 degrees of latitude, you can detect a limited number of spotty locations where high concentrations of PW appear to be escaping from the belt and heading off in stream-like formations over otherwise rather barren landscapes to the north and south. Every one of these escape formations is a little different from the others, which is true today and will surely remain true thereafter in view of their scrambled features. The differences can be seen to cover a broad range, leaving no obvious cut-off points that would readily allow one to say that some of the escape formations can genuinely be labeled as ARs while the rest cannot. Better just to say that they all deserve a common label, and then proceed to set up categories of classification in as many different ways as may be practical. Except for a few tiny little runts, that don’t really go anywhere or do anything special, and thus deserve to be kicked out, all of the rest of the formations manage to accomplish one key function in common: they all spread some additional amount of PW over the barren landscape, doing so at what is understandably perceived as a high altitude. The map itself does not actually make such a distinction, showing only totals of PW from the ground up, but there is no other way to explain the preponderance of observed activity departing the tropical belt.

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Under this idea for setting up a definition, an AR can be likened to a cloud. There are a huge variety of clouds up there, in every imaginable size, shape and so on. Despite these vast differences they are all called clouds for a few simple reasons. We have a similar set of simple reasons for doing the same with ARs, which happens to be a perfectly good name-choice for the entire category because of the river-like motion the formations all express as their contents depart from the tropical belt and continue onward. These rivers have several things in common with those on the surface, particularly in their style of motion. And if, for purposes of definition, we insist that they carry water—no problem.

There is one more thing you should do at this time, while your animated screen is open.  Put your screen on magnification, up to around 200%, so you can examine and interpret PW concentrations over any location in greater detail.  Now look for different locations that clearly get affected by the movement of streaming PW from one day to the next.  Place your cursor at such a location and take note of what the changes are like for that location.  You should be able to find some spots where the variations change from, say, 8 or 10kg of total PW up to 30 or 40kg.  Those are the two-double type, where temperature anomalies on a different map are likely to be reported around the +20C category for a day or two.  Closer to the poles, you might pick out locations that temporarily grow from 2-3kg to 10-12, and get the same kind of anomaly.  Single doubles are of course much more common, along with everything else that is possible.

Carl

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