One of my primary objectives in writing these letters is simply to demonstrate what I consider to be a fact, that all of the precipitable water (PW) in the atmosphere generates a greenhouse energy effect, just like the long-life gases do, except that the effect from PW is of very short duration at any location outside of the tropical belt. By “short” I mean just a day or two—more or less. Outside of the tropical belt the total amount of PW in the atmosphere at any one location is constantly shifting, and the resulting values are highly erratic, unless tempered by seasonal disparities or by renewability effects that generally are of limited duration. At many locations these “erratic values” can cause temperature anomalies that range from high extremes of around 25C above average, on some days, for that day of the year, to 25C below average for that same day in a following year.
Why do PW values vary so much? We have to break it down. At ground level, and throughout most of the lower atmosphere, we can measure PW in terms of specific humidity, which is also referred to as absolute humidity. Most of this PW will be nothing more than water vapor plus fog. We measure it by molecular weight of the PW expressed as a percent of the total molecular weight of the surrounding atmosphere at that location. Values shift up and down, within limits, throughout the course of a day, every day, resulting in a moderate diversity of daily averages, and there normally are seasonal trends for these averages, again within limits. This all causes a moderate level of ambient variation in PW’s greenhouse effect on surface temperatures.
To look for larger and more erratic effects we have to go “upstairs.” to higher levels of the atmosphere. Why so? Because that is where the phenomena known as “atmospheric rivers” (ARs) are located. The existence of these “rivers” is well known, but I have doubts about how well they have been studied, such as in terms of ordinary organized classification. In images that are available they appear to have quite an assortment of shapes and sizes, variability of movement, overall distribution and durability, for starters. We do know that they are composed entirely of PW, which serves as the source of practically all of the precipitation that spreads far and wide over the continental land masses. Each AR can be viewed as a discrete, river-like body of PW that is constantly in motion. Some of the PW within a river is extremely concentrated, especially in the early stages of formation. Beyond that stage concentration steadily declines, yet typically remains high, in terms of total molecular weight, compared with the total molecular weight of all the PW within the atmosphere at any location directly below the passage of an AR that may sporadically be flowing overhead.
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Current and average PW weight values are available for every planetary surface location, and so are current and average daily temperatures, for each of the 365 days of the year. Conventional science has not yet taken advantage of this availability by making simple comparisons to see how well they match. I have personally made the effort, based on the study of somewhat limited resources, and believe the information that would be gained by doing so at the scientific level would be useful. I am absolutely certain that every bit of PW in the atmosphere generates a genuine greenhouse effect. In addition, I am confident that the effect can be measured, within close tolerances, on any day at any location. I believe the effect is best defined by use of logarithmic principles, just as the greenhouse energy effect of CO2 is currently defined. For any non-tropical location, I believe that any doubling of total PW value in the overhead atmosphere, combined from all levels, will immediately generate a short-duration greenhouse effect capable of contributing close to 10C to surface air temperatures, aside from all other heating or cooling factors that are in effect at the same time. Finally, I believe the current practice of climate science, and its understanding of the processes involved in climate change, would greatly benefit from the active pursuit and refinement of the readily available information behind these claims.
Carl