If you have not read yesterday’s letter I would urge you to drop whatever else you have in mind and do so now. The new revelations from James Hansen have come as a wake-up call for me, enough so that I want to give it some extra attention, even more than I normally do for “Carl’s theory.” The scenario laid out by Hansen has the same kind of outcome for global temperatures as the scenario laid out in Carl’s theory, indicating the likelihood of a near-term acceleration in the rate of global warming. The two scenarios are completely independent from each other. Mine is based on ideas that result in unexpected increases in greenhouse energy production, generated from a source that science pays little attention to, precipitable water (PW). Hansen’s viewpoint results in considerable increases in solar energy reaching Earth’s surface, caused by an accelerated removal of the sulfate aerosols that are naturally generated by the burning of fossil fuels. Science is aware of this threat but must live with a shortage of good data to work with. Few scientists are ready to give it the same level of attention that Hansen does.
Hansen’s new prediction was delivered as a sort of offhand comment, in a most obscure medium, and went unnoticed for over a month. Thankfully it was picked up and publicized by a top science journalist, Bob Berwyn. His review was quickly followed up and expanded upon by the tough-minded team from Australia that creates the online studies known as Climate Code Red. Here is how they handled it: http://www.climatecodered.org/2021/09/renowned-climate-scientist-warns-rate.html. There is no other coverage in the public media that I know of. My personal view is that Hansen is someone who should always be taken seriously. If his prediction is in fact correct, which may be a hard thing to validate, we are in a world of trouble. About the only conceivable way to offset it would be to go ahead and take the plunge into the world of geoengineering, specifically through the program that would deliver sulfate aerosols back into the high part of the atmosphere at whatever pace was necessary for replacement. There are risks involved, which can be weighed against the risks of doing nothing. The program has advocates, and I suspect we will soon be hearing from them. There will be much debate, which the public will hear about and worry over. Scientists will be bombarded with questions, as to whether or not they agree with Hansen’s predictions, and will be put on the spot by people who want straight answers.
I am planning to spend more personal time thinking and writing about the way the cooling effect of sulfate aerosols actually works in nature, both at the time of growing and of receding. I can already see that it is complicated in a number of ways, especially because of differences in response between land surfaces and ocean surfaces. This has always been a factor with respect to their relative response to greenhouse energy inputs, and should be the same, or nearly so, for solar inputs. Oceans are able to store a large part of incoming energy, and keep it in storage for long periods of time. Land and ice-covered surfaces have no such facility, and can store no more than a tiny fraction of incoming energy. They re-emit energy back to space almost as fast as it comes in. Re-emitted energy is always limited to the longwave, or infrared, variety, which gives it the kind of structure required for trapping by greenhouse gases and various other bits of matter suspended in the atmosphere that are a little more flexible. Longwave trapping is the main thing that makes the air become warmer than it would otherwise be.
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Carl