US carbon emissions moved up sharply in 2018 for the second worst performance of the past twenty years. This post has a chart of the four major contributing factors since 1990, each of which has had its own unique story over the years. They all took a turn for the worse in 2018. The two biggest sectors, power and transportation, do have things going on that create considerable hopes for better performance soon to come but everything will need to be pushed much harder for any useful goals to be accomplished.
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Which parts of the US will suffer most from climate change, and how soon? A magazine called Fast Company takes a good look at the subject in two separate articles. The first one does so mainly with maps:
–The second has more discussion and also places the problem within an international perspective:
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Globally, and on average, where will temperature increases have the strongest effects? A professional statistician has picked up on the fact, which has been discussed many times before in these letters, that climate change is raising air temperatures much faster over land surfaces than over the oceans. That has real consequences for humans—since we practically all live on land. He has added some pertinent information based on the fact that there are wide differences just within the land category that bring significance to which particular region one happens to be living in. Not many regions are especially close to “average,” so while living on land by itself may be defined as unfortunate, one is in still worse shape if living in whatever land parts are warming up much faster than the others. This work finds that living in the Northern Hemisphere is a disadvantage relative to the South, and then if you look closely at his map (from Berkeley) it appears that the Eastern half of the NH is warming more quickly than the West. It is certainly an imprecise guide, but I believe the basic principle is well-conceived, with consequences for those affected.
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Evidence of deep, slow-moving ocean currents has been found. According to basic theory, when the waters of a major surface current known as the Gulf Stream turn cold in the North Atlantic they descend to a deeper level and from there start traveling around the globe for as long as a thousand years before resurfacing, while remaining cold along the way. This story tells about a crew of scientists who were able to find evidence of one such track in a deep location far from the point of origin.
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Another study of long-term processes at work on Earth’s surface shows how the Sahara region has repeatedly swung back and forth between lush greenery and dry desert every 20,000 years, under the influence of regular sunlight cycles. The immediate driver in this case was found to be monsoon rain pattern cycles rather than much longer ice age cycles, as had once been suspected.
Carl