Climate Letter #2001

Yesterday’s letter stressed the importance of understanding the movement of precipitable water (PW) concentrations in the troposphere’s upper-level wind system. Carl’s theory of PW’s greenhouse effect is mostly built around things we can learn from close observations of all the little details that are involved. There are regular patterns that tend to limit the amount of variability. When those patterns break down for some reason the movement gets out of control, and the concentrations start going to places, meaning locations directly above Earth’s surface, where they are unexpected. The result is a warm temperature anomaly at the surface, the size of which depends on the size and durability of the concentration that is passing overhead.

If you want to know more about this process the best way to get started is by visiting the website that features a constant, real-time, 5-day animation of total PW concentrations all over the globe:  http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php.  Allow yourself plenty of time, so you can absorb and interpret the countless details.  The tropical belt is an easy thing to isolate.  It exists today, seasonally adapted, within the bounds of its northernmost latitudes, but will soon be shifting southward.  The kinds of volumes and motions observed from PW inside the belt do not change very much from day to day, or as it shifts up and down, and that’s where about 90% of all PW is to be found.  The other 10% is much more interesting.  It’s the stuff I will be talking about.

On each border of the tropical belt you can see how large concentrations are intermittently being formed into streams that are inclined to take off on their own, moving away from the belt. They all do so with a directional bias of west to east, the first sign that jetstream winds might be involved. These streams all originate from places that are plenty warm and plenty wet to begin with, with lots of water vapor always left behind at lower levels. This lower vapor, if it moves at all, will move in many different directions. The imagery you are looking at is derived from a proportional averaging of all movement, high and low. The average is obviously heavily weighted by representation of the higher level volumes that are moving from west to east. This should tell us that the volume of vapor rising to the jetstream level must be at least two or three times greater than the volume that remains closer to the surface, which means a pretty heavy load of “beef” is constantly being relocated high in the sky, into a whole new kind of environment.

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As these streams move away from the belt we can see how they express a regular tendency to keep moving and to stay concentrated.  Staying concentrated is not the sort of thing we expect to see for any kind of gas that has been turned loose in the air, but here we can only accept the situation as presented by the imagery. The streams all do break down, but even the bits and pieces that result after several days, which are still moving as they did before, are more concentrated than the PW material that is in view off to the sides. This material will contain at least all of the low-level PW, and probably a little more from random dispersal. Surface vapor, by the way, is constantly being measured by weather stations, independent of any overhead amounts, and we know that between the tropical belt and each pole there is a steady rate of decline in all such measurements.  We don’t see any of these numbers on the kilogram scale, which would require an impossible 2-part division by altitude, but by interpretation we can imagine how the low level numbers would decline from perhaps 15kg at the edge of the tropics all the way down to just 25 grams or less (in winter) at the polar extremes. One last point, the low-level numbers tend to be more stable while higher concentrations in the upper level are more intermittent.

Is it right to picture a troposphere divided into two separate compartments, one above the other, each containing its own separate content of PW, with the upper level holding more total weight, but in tighter concentrations that never stop moving? The animated website supports this view, and I believe it serves well as an explanation for temperature outcomes on the surface, keyed to a regular exposure to varying combinations of PW’s greenhouse energy effects.

Carl

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