Climate Letter #1999

If I ever gave the impression that the greenhouse energy generated by clouds added something to the planetary total, I’m sorry. It was a mistake. The energy is real, all right, but every bit of cloud formation involves a loss of water vapor, molecule for molecule, and all of the energy they were generating while in that state. On balance, a net loss from condensation into clouds would seem more likely than a gain, but I have not been able to detect any significant difference from the imagery comparisons I depend on, and will leave it at that until more accurate comparisons can be made.

Meanwhile, I’ve been awakened to a new understanding of the importance of clouds as an agency of cooling. Water vapor and all the other greenhouse gases do a great job of warming the planet by blocking outgoing radiation of the longwave type, which is necessary for life to exist, but are helpless when it comes to making any change, up or down, in the input of shortwave solar radiation. Too much greenhouse activity, if generated, tends to be disastrous, as we now are learning. We have also learned that cloud formation has always been the principal means of keeping the energy system in balance, expressed in two separate ways.

First, we know that water vapor is far and away the strongest of all the greenhouse gases. It also has a very special way of being created, and only that one way, by the evaporation of water. All of the other gases have a wide variety of sources. The amount of vapor that is created is highly dependent on how warm the different planetary surfaces are, which establishes the basis for a positive feedback loop. Warmer surfaces cause more evaporation, which necessarily adds more greenhouse energy generation to the atmosphere, causing still warmer surfaces to evolve, etc., etc. Clouds have saved the day, thanks to the way water vapor condenses into fine droplets and remain that way when high up in the air. Things are a little different closer to the surface. Cloud tops then proceed to reflect substantial amounts of incoming solar radiation, cutting off a major source of heat with regularity. When evaporation becomes excessive for some reason, causing more greenhouse surface warming, more clouds are also likely to form, and more solar heat will be cut off, helping to maintain a good balance.

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That’s only part of the story. Clouds do something else that is probably even more important. Their existence sets the stage for an additional round of condensation, quite different from the first, while still using the same fundamental ingredients, H2O molecules. This time the end product is in the form of aerosols that are too heavy to stay afloat in the air. Once these aerosols are formed gravity can take over and they will soon fall back to the surface. This entire sequence of activity effectively makes it impossible for too much water vapor to ever accumulate in the atmosphere. All of its enormous potential for greenhouse energy production just keeps eroding away. The whole process leaves newly formed water vapor with a life cycle that averages only five to ten days in the atmosphere. Considering the copious amount of material that is involved we should appreciate the fact that the overall balance of this fast-moving process is maintained within reasonable bounds from start to finish.

Having said that, I am left wondering about how confident we should be that this balance will continue to be maintained at a level to our liking.  Evaporation rates are governed by one set of rules and circumstances, cloud formation by another, and precipitation processing by yet one more, each set having some unique features. In all cases the various circumstances are subject to outside forces that are not necessarily consistent. Many of these forces, both natural and unnatural, are known to be undergoing accelerated changes in the modern era. I have a particular interest in changes that are taking effect in higher altitude portions of the atmosphere.

Carl

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