Climate Letter #1984

Carl’s theory is actually a whole set of theories, separate but closely related.  They all revolve around the substance we call precipitable water (PW), its nature, powers, peculiarities, interactions and broadly extended effects.  When you add them all up the full picture becomes what I believe is an important factor in Earth’s climate system.  I mean really important. Its role could well go beyond what I have seen so far.  For instance, what if there is no limit to the quantity of PW that can be concentrated into streams that are transmitted from ocean surfaces to the upper level wind systems dominated by jetstream winds?  Evaporation rates tend to increase when surface waters are warmer.  The potential for future warming of surface waters is considerable, and high-altitude PW can help it warm even more in many places. Moving several miles upward from the surface has no apparent limitations for newly created vapor.

Historically, PW in the upper atmosphere could be thought of as a sleeping giant. It is a “giant” mainly because of the enormous power of its greenhouse energy potential, about 10C per double of overhead concentration. By comparison, CO2, all by itself, meaning without any effect from feedbacks like water vapor thrown in, adds about 1C per double. PW in the upper atmosphere is “sleeping” to the extent that quantities have historically been kept under control in ways that do not allow its powers to increase significantly. Such control is more readily accomplished at low altitudes, where certain principles of condensation are always in effect. Those principles do not seem to apply when the condensation products are airborne, as clouds for example, and remain aloft and active with respect to capturing and emitting radiation. At high altitudes it seems that control over the quantities and effectiveness of PW has for the most part been handed over to jetstream wind activity, Strong, well-placed winds keep it from moving very far and probably contribute to lifetime shortening through stimulating its rate of precipitation upon making contact. Any weakening of jetstream activity, upon occurrence, seasonally or otherwise, should then make room for more of PW’s innate powers to be expressed—by methods which are in fact being regularly observed on weather map images. The sleeping habit, these images tell us, has been awakened in recent decades, but is it actually a phenomenon big enough to be of interest in the scientific community?

Two days ago, in CL#1982, I wrote about scientists who are frustrated by their inability to explain the current pace of climate change.  Some have called it a “blind spot.”  I’ve now found another story to report, this one offering further elaboration into the depth of this frustration.  The bad news we are getting can no longer be attributed to random, “once in a thousand years” extreme events.  For one thing there is too much of it, too diverse in character, too well spread out regionally.  Moreover, concrete signals have been emerging from the “noise” of daily weather reports that climate models simply cannot account for, suggesting some degree of normalization of this unexpected behavior.  Michael Mann makes this point very clearly in a recent interview with CNN, which you can read about here:  https://www.cbs58.com/news/scientists-are-worried-by-how-fast-the-climate-crisis-has-amplified-extreme-weather.  The models are missing something, and it is something big enough to cause alarm.  Scientists really do want to know the nature of whatever it is they are missing. Does Carl’s theory hold the answer? Much of its content is in fact not recognized in any scientific literature, thereby satisfying the novelty test qualification.

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Carl’s theory, now being renamed after finding the deep mutual feedback interaction between the melting of Arctic sea ice and the greenhouse warming effect of high-altitude PW concentrations, provides “a multi-pronged explanation of an important cause of climate change acceleration.” I have never suspected that the physical impact of this acceleration could be anywhere near as massive as current events are revealing. I am also quite amazed by the coincidence of all these happenings being so closely timed with the theory’s presentation. I do wish the presentation were more formal, and not just through the scrambled messiness these letters provide. (Can anyone help me fix that problem?) In all fairness, Carl’s theory could be nothing more than a lot of unscientific nonsense dreamed up by an old man who has no training or credentials or history of any kind of accomplishments that would give it credibility. Nevertheless, is there any part of it that, under serious examination, could not possibly be true?

Carl

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