Climate Letter #1983

Carl’s theory is going to undergo one more name change.  When I put al the pieces together  I can see that the full scope of its implications go well beyond the greenhouse energy effects of precipitable water (PW).  Those effects are vitally important at every step along the way, actually becoming more and more important as their energy is amplified.  But PW does not amplify its own strength.  Only a small fraction, probably not even 10% of the global total at any one time, becomes amplified, and not by its own doing.  This fraction gets involved in a far-off “world,” or venue, where everything is changed.  Think of Alice in Wonderland and you get the same idea, starting off with almost the same identical kind of aerial uplift!  Once PW has entered this venue it is exposed to a whole new set of regulating forces, which are described at some length in the theory.  These forces determine whether or not the PW energy is amplified, which accordingly elevates their level of systematic importance. 

We cannot even stop at that point.  These upper-atmosphere forces are not in themselves independent.  They are acted upon by still other forces, all of which are ultimately interconnected.  They can all be set in motion, and begin interacting, when something unusual happens, if the happening is powerful enough.  It may need to originate in outer space, like an asteroid, or it could develop through slow changes in Earth’s orbit, which periodically provide us with the great ice sheets. Today we find ourselves in a predicament that is unprecedented, beginning right here in our own backyard, by the action of human hands.  We are told about it every day, and I think you already know the details.  What you may be less familiar with is the follow-up story, which analyzes the impact of the additional heat source on various parts of Earth’s entire operating system.  For that I will recommend a serious reading of a research report on the subject of climate tipping points, authored by seven of the foremost experts in that field, published at the University of Exeter in December, 2019.  Here is the link:  https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/bitstream/handle/10871/40141/Lenton_Nature%20Comment_accepted_version.pdf.   

The lead author of this piece, Tim Lenton, was interviewed by Mongabay early this year, which can be read as a summary of the research plus a few extra perspectives:  https://news.mongabay.com/2021/01/were-approaching-critical-climate-tipping-points-qa-with-tim-lenton/.  The article contains an early paragraph about the role of Arctic sea ice in the early stages of tipping point interaction.  Arctic sea ice has been highlighted in Carl’s theory because of the way it interconnects with forces that regulate activities in the upper atmosphere. This interconnection happens naturally, whether or not the activities being regulated happen to have an effect on the movement of any PW that is present.  Jetstream winds are up there and they blow the way they are told to blow by specific isobars marking air pressure differentials.  The isobar configuration over the Arctic region ordinarily goes through regular seasonal variations that depend on upward air pressure generated in accordance with the temperature of air at the surface. When there is unusual melting of sea ice on the Arctic surface the nearby air temperature will be warmer than usual, which is ultimately transmitted into an unusual weakening of jetstream winds high above through the intervening mechanism processes. 

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When jetstream winds are weaker than usual the stage is set for larger amounts of upper-level PW concentration to move closer to the polar zone, with extra amounts of PW making direct entry into the zone. (We can see how all these things transpire in the Arctic, but fall short in the other hemisphere, where sea ice is present but not centered in the polar zone.) Increased concentrations of PW over the polar zone always contribute to the warming of air at the surface below, which inevitably adds something extra to the source of energy causing sea ice to melt. The end result is a self-reinforcing feedback loop, one that did not exist about fifty years ago but then began taking effect when Earth’s air temperatures had warmed enough to cause an extra melting of ice beyond the usual seasonal limits—an effective tipping point. This particular feedback loop has an accelerating effect on air temperatures that is noticeably changing the pace of climate change in the Northern Hemisphere. Carl’s theory adds significantly to our level of knowledge about the special processes causing this acceleration, and will shortly be renamed on that basis.

Carl

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