Climate Letter #1964

Carl’s theory has practical things to say about the greenhouse energy effect of precipitable water (PW). These are things you never hear about or read about anywhere else, just in these letters. The author of these letters is over 90 and has recently begun experiencing a rapid increase in various symptoms of old age, enough so to leave the extent of future publication of the letters in doubt. Carl’s theory could vanish from sight at the same time, which would not be a good thing if it actually has something of scientific interest to tell us that would help to deepen our understanding of the problem of climate change. I am totally convinced, and will keep trying to make arguments that support the theory and ifs potential importance as long as possible, and can only hope that someone else will see enough merit in the program to keep it going once I have stopped.

Some comments now on what makes the theory important, apart from its novelty. It all goes back to the idea that daily temperature anomalies, which are plainly observable, really mean something. They occupy the”front lines” of climate change. As in old-fashioned times of war, when the front lines are moving, in one direction or another, the tide of battle is moving in that same direction. Any commander who is sitting behind the scenes will always want to know as much as possible about what is happening out there, and why, and what next to expect. What are the realities that control the course of events, and what, if anything, can change those realities?

Our basic approach to climate change depends on our knowledge of “mean average surface temperatures,” preferably global in scale but without ignoring long-lasting contributions from the globe’s various regional divides. These averages are ultimately derived from an adding up of the sizes of all the different fluctuations, both positive and negative, in terms of departure from baseline norms, usually accomplished in a bulk manner because of the difficulty of calculating the causes of anomalies each and every day at every location. We can still examine the latter at random, seeking further insights, which has become my personal approach. Anyone can see how the fluctuations come in all different shapes and sizes, which in turn depend on the sizes of a generally limited list of factors that make a meaningful contribution to each fluctuation. Each of the factors on that list can be examined independently from the standpoint of measuring its relative size and taking note of any trends in its development.

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Carl’s theory is founded on an understanding that the greenhouse energy effect of PW can be accounted for holistically, by continuously combining the greenhouse effects of water vapor and all of its airborne products of condensation, that the effects on surface temperatures, whether positive or negative, can be measured with a high degree of accuracy at all times in all locations, that they are constantly varying, quite often on scales of extreme size variation, and that these extreme-type variations have far more influence on daily temperature anomalies than any other single factor that can be accounted for, with cloud albedo effects probably next in line.

The large size of this factor, by itself, gives PW’s greenhouse effect an aura of importance, but this would be neutralized if its relationship to the other factors (one of which is CO2) were completely stable.  Part 2 of the theory is based on findings to the contrary, by revealing a unique set of circumstances that are independently capable of magnifying PW’s effect.  The circumstances involve activity and relationships that only occur in the upper levels of the troposphere outside of the tropical belt. The effects are for the greater part realized at surfaces in the higher latitudes, but unequally so in the two hemispheres.  In the Northern Hemisphere, within just the past few decades, a threshold was breached with the result that PW’s greenhouse effect is now being swiftly accelerated, doing great damage at the ground level. The details are all subject to observations that are provided each day by readily accessible imagery. A self-reinforcing feedback loop has come into play, interacting with feedbacks that originate from other sources, making this trend all the more dangerous, and thus worthy of a more advanced level of attention.

Carl

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