Carl’s Theory is derived from observations that two apparently disparate sources of greenhouse energy effects, water vapor and cloud body masses, along with other disparate components of the airborne material commonly referred to as pecipitable water (PW), can justifiably be treated as a single entity with respect to determining their combined impact on surface temperatures. Findings drawn from weather map data make it clear that the outcome is determined, within a reasonable margin of error, in a consistently close relationship to the total molecular weight of all the PW components. This holds true regardless of the many wide differences in component contributions to total PW weight in any part of the atmosphere away from Earth’s tropical belt.
The actual effect of the greenhouse impact can be expressed in terms of the degree of air temperature change over non-tropical land and ice-covered sea surfaces, using the same concept commonly applied to the impact of CO2 concentrations over all global surfaces. Both of these are logarithmic, even as they operate on totally different time scales. For PW, the number of degrees, as proposed in Carl’s Theory, is a hefty 10C per every double in total weight, very narrowly limited by brevity of timing and their exact location. Weight values vary from a starting point as low as 15 grams per vertical square meter ranging up to highs of 30 kilograms or more, every bit of which is needed for covering changes to some 125 degrees of overall temperature readings. In practice, full doubles and redoubles occur almost daily in a scattering of locations, relative to historic averages. All such warm anomalies are of course regularly offset by comparable negative impacts when PW weight values fall short of local averages. Daily evidence of all these relationships, up and down the temperature scale, serves as the one most credible basis for explaining and understanding practically all of the largest daily temperature anomalies that we commonly experience.
Air temperature anomalies of every shape and size tend to make daily shifts in location, and even larger shifts over weeks and months. Everyday analysis of broad movement in the distribution pattern of the PW weight values accompanying these shifts can lead us to useful sources of explanation for how and why the shifts occur. Something must be going on behind the scenes, and it should be worth knowing about, because the effects are so powerful, and so quick. Where does it come from? Are there any possibilities for change? Once the the fundamentals of causation behind PW movement and distribution are reasonably well understood we might be able to spot the development of any trends that may enable future changes to occur. Part 2 of Carl’s Theory proposes that we already have knowledge of a meaningful share of such information in place but not yet widely available, knowledge that could be quickly put to use by way of explaining changes of a potentially dangerous character that are already occurring.
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Carl