My project for the time being is to create an appropriate definition of a theory that I hope will be coming into existence as a topic of public discussion, but has not yet arrived. Yesterday I recommended use of the name, “Carl’s Theory,” which at best is only a shortcut. Theory of what? That has to be narrowed down to a full name that is both specific and accurate, with a focus on something that is new to human understanding. This is a basic requirement for the proposal of any theory that is meant to be important for some reason. The public is then left to decide whether the theory is correct and whether it is important. Any theory that advances our understanding of climate change, if valid, should have extra importance in these times.
What I wrote about yesterday was not greenhouse energy effects in general, or precipitable water (PW) in general, both of which are widely recognized realities, but rather of how the two can be linked together and viewed in combination. This is a subject that is conceivably worthy of study but to date has not gained much attention of any kind. PW is certainly not mentioned in the science literature as a producer of greenhouse energy, in the company of “regular” greenhouse gases and clouds, in spite of having a composition that is deeply indebted to both. All of the gases have some type of associated data that helps to define their powers. Water vapor, because it is not evenly distributed throughout the atmosphere like the others are, has a more limited amount of data to work with and has basically been subordinated to the status of a feedback. Clouds are even harder to pin down from the standpoint of hard data, but reasonably competent observations lead to the general conclusion that they have significant powers of production of greenhouse energy that noticeably affects surface air temperatures. On the other hand, depending on the situation, clouds also generate cooling effects by virtue of their albedo properties.
The total content of all the PW in the atmosphere is widely understood to include virtually 100% of all the water vapor that exists and the same for all of the clouds that have formed as a result of vapor’s condensation, plus more of the same for a number of advanced products like rain and snow, etc. The total molecular weight of all these PW components is subject to accurate measurement, detailed on a fairly tight scale and short time frames with respect to location and further determined in terms of vertical columns. This information is widely available in usable formatting. It is basic to my principal discovery, totally unexpected, that the holistic greenhouse effect of PW can be determined over an extraordinarily broad range of values with a high degree of accuracy and consistency. The calculations employed in making the determination require nothing more than limited amounts of other information, all of which is readily available and notably accurate, most importantly in the form of short-term temperature anomalies. The greenhouse power itself is expressed in exactly the same manner that the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide is commonly expressed, in terms of a standard addition to surface air temperatures caused by logarithmic changes in the atmospheric concentration of the energy producer.
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Carl