Climate Letter #1926

Over the past year, because of much time spent studying and mentally integrating the diverse imagery of Today’s Weather Maps, I have developed a number of ideas that can be structured into a set of theories. These are theories about how nature works, in a fundamental sort of way, which makes them subject to the principles of science, and thus conceivably worthy of scientific investigation. None of the theories, to date, have been proven by scientific standards, nor have any been disproved that I know of. They are basically unfamiliar, not on anybody’s radar from the get-go. I have produced quite a bit of evidence, taken directly from the maps, which I personally think is credible and even compelling, presented it as best I could to the people who read these letters, who tend to come and go, but I never hear anything back, pro or con. I am not sure that anyone has yet found them interesting enough to want to dig deeper and flesh out some of the less-obvious details, which would require extra work-time and maybe a bit of outside help.

The theories themselves need to be clearly defined, and it’s possible that I have not done so very well. They are all centered on the complex airborne material known as precipitable water (PW). The properties and powers of are of great interest to meteorologists from a weather-making standpoint, with a focus on cloud formation and behavior, all types of precipitation, humidity, storm activity and the like. Latent heat creation and release are involved in deeper studies. I have been looking at the properties and powers of PW in a different light, giving primary attention to a perception of its power to generate greenhouse energy effects. I have found that the power behind these effects is capable of being viewed holistically in spite of the multiplicity of components and the considerable variability of their composition within the material substance of PW.

The holistic view implies an understanding that PW can in all circumstances be treated as a single substance with respect to its greenhouse energy powers. This has not been proven, nor is there anything of an intuitive nature suggesting the need for an effort to investigate. I just stumbled into the idea out of curiosity, which involved the making of connections between daily temperature anomalies and the more obvious variations in PW concentrations that regularly appear on the maps. I kept finding a consistent connection, which has been repeated and demonstrated in these letters on numerous occasions, to the effect that, everything else being equal, and with the granting of an exception to both the tropical belt and large water bodies, any doubling of PW concentration in the atmosphere above a particular surface location had the same-day effect of adding very close to 10 degrees C to the air temperature report for that surface. If the testing is properly handled, and given only a small allowance for uncertainty (+/-), which is certainly acceptable to any science of this type, this specific 10C outcome never seems to fail, downside as well as upside, or when applied fractionally.

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Giving PW a specific greenhouse energy value, if confirmed, becomes a handy tool for purposes of analysis, especially for establishing the causes of everyday temperature anomalies, but this is just the starting point.  PW is not evenly distributed throughout the atmosphere like CO2 and all other evenly mixed greenhouse gases, not even close.  Its actual distribution, on average for a given day of the year and location, again outside of the tropical belt, runs from lows of less than 50 grams in places like Antarctica to highs near 25-30 kilograms near the tropics. (Individual days can be still higher.)  That’s a spectacular difference of 500 times, probably much more.  This shines a spotlight on how the distribution of PW in the atmosphere actually varies in its own right, in order to create all of these widely differing historical averages.  From absolute lows to absolute highs on a given day requires a total spread by PW for the day that must be several times greater than that of the averages.  Some of my ideas and theories related to PW are focused on its means of distribution, which I have been trying to explain and demonstrate.  I find it to be a subject of endless fascination, marked by all sorts of strange activity in the upper part of the troposphere, once again outside of the tropical belt.  Given the 10C per double figure, we should want to know about any possibility of large-scale changes in PW averages in the atmosphere over different parts of the planet, especially those parts where averages are now among the lowest and most susceptible to leverage.

Carl

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