Climate Letter #1314

A new theory explains the recent weird behavior of Antarctic sea ice.  Prior to 2016 its maximum extent was steadily growing, exactly the reverse of the sea ice trend in the Arctic Ocean, a matter that was widely observed and advertised by those who deny climate change.  Then in 2016 there was a dramatic crash in the Antarctic maximum, completely breaking the trend.  It can all be seen on a chart in this post from Carbon Brief, plus the way natural processes can account for the behavior, as explained.  The researchers make a good point, but do not talk about what might happen if vast amounts of glacial meltwater formation begins a new phase of cooling and freshening the surface waters, as predicted by other theories.

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A comprehensive evaluation of how the carbon cycle has performed in North America over the past decade.  There are nine principal findings, all briefly summarized, each of them being interesting in some way.  One particular finding, (#8), has special interest because it passes judgment on the highly controversial outlook for future emissions caused by the melting of permafrost, in this way:  “Frozen soil in the Arctic is melting and could release 5%–15% of its carbon stores by the end of this century.”  The translation into total tonnage is not stated, but could be quite meaningful in terms of a climate feedback amplifier.
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An interview with Al Gore, conducted by David Wallace-Wells (New York Intelligencer).  This is interesting because Gore has a pretty good handle on the problems being caused by climate change while Wallace-Wells is noted for the attention he has previously given to some of the more ardent doomsayers.  Gore is more of a hopeful type, and here he is pressed into giving reasons for his hopefulness, which I thought were not overly convincing.  For example, “Will there be a breakthrough in carbon capture, pulling CO2 out of the atmosphere? I certainly hope so. By the way, the IPCC projections, not for the 50 percent goal but for the goal later in the century, they tell us we have to do that. Whether it’s through the so-called BECCS Program or in some other way, we probably will have to do that.  That’s a daunting challenge for sure, but it’s possible. It’s possible.”
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A new study reviews all the pressures that stand in the way of protecting tropical forests.  They basically evolve from the widespread public interest in growth and development, aggravated by interwoven levels of corruption that is poorly controlled.
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Bushfires in Queensland, Australia are wreaking incredible havoc.  “The word unprecedented has been used repeatedly to describe Queensland’s weather this past week. Centuries-old heat records were broken in north Queensland, most remarkably in Cairns, where the hottest November temperature had been a 37.2C day in 1900. On Monday last week, Cairns was recorded at 42.6C. The following four days were all hotter than the previous record.”  Conditions are drier than normal as well as warmer.
Carl

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