Climate Letter #1899

A new way of defining “the blue zone.” Yesterday, when writing about the healthiness of the blue zone, as depicted on the upper-level air pressure map, my mind started to entertain a new idea. I could see that the zone has a defined physical reality, which is the case no matter how it is depicted and having nothing to do with the color blue. Its reality is defined on one hand by the simple fact that the 500hPa level (equal to one-half of the atmosphere average by weight) is lower in this blue-colored area than it is anywhere else, by a margin great enough to make it distinctive. The thing that makes it distinctive is also a physical reality, of a different kind. The zone features the manifestation of a major jetstream pathway, capable of bearing real, live jetstream winds of significantly high velocity. This pathway’s very existence is dependent on the existence of what can be called a “healthy” blue zone, which is one characterized by a 500hPa level that stays at a low altitude relative to its level everywhere outside of the zone. Should that differential in altitude fade away, so would the pathway that has emerged naturally along the track of the differential. The only reason I know this is because I look at the relevant set of maps every day, and this pattern of relationships has become so familiar there must be some truth to it.

That’s just part one. We still want to know what makes the 500hPa level move up and down in this region. The answer is readily available on a different map, the one showing air temperatures at the planetary surface directly below. As long as prevailing temperatures on this map are stuck below freezing, across a region of considerable size, there will always be a blue zone in view on the other map where 500hPa has materialized at a relatively low altitude compared with pressures in surrounding areas over surface regions that are warmer. The freezing cold surface temperature has greater properties of density contraction, offering a credible explanation for why this is so via upward transmission of the effect.

We have now been presented with three physical realities that together show clear signs of entanglement. Two of them, the low level of 500hPa and the jetstream pathway that results, are marked by the appearance of a blue zone on the 500 hPa weather map. When we look at the map of surface temperatures we get a surprise, probably a coincidence, in the form of another blue zone, one that corresponds very well with the complete region of below freezing temperatures on the map. This time the blue zone is usually not entirely blue. There may be some other colors in the interior, but all around the perimeter of the zone there is nothing but light and dark blue marking it out.

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The maps thus present us with two separate blue-zone images, one of which sits atop the other. Throughout the course of a year the two of them will follow each other around like me-and-my-shadow, or better to say almost like, because their outlines are never quite perfectly matched. They are, however, very close to staying matched, which is remarkable considering the spatial separation and the exceptional differences in physical makeup of the two zones. They both keep changing shape, day after day. I think we can assume that the upper blue zone is the more “shadowy” of the two, adjusting to changes in the one below in its own way and at its own pace. When the temperature zone fragments into more than one unit, which is not too unusual, the pressure zone follows suit , and so does its jetstream pathway. Last summer all three of them came close to disappearing for awhile.

This three-way entanglement, grounded in physical reality by my personal interpretation, as derived from a mapping perspective, has not yet been confirmed by the sciences. Because of the mapping reference I am giving the interpretation a simple moniker, “the blue-zone hypothesis,” as a way of emphasizing the unified entanglement of the two blue zones. Maybe a better name will be available some day. Meanwhile, I would urge consideration, thinking this hypothesis adds to our knowledge of how nature actually works. Moreover, with possibly important jetstream activity being at stake within the entanglement, this story is bound to have more depth.

Carl

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