Climate Letter #1312

2018 can nearly be confirmed as the fourth hottest year on record, topped only by the previous three (BBCNews).  The relative strength of the continuous cycling between El Nino and La Nina conditions is again an important factor, causing some weakness for both 2017 and 2018.  That should become a strengthening factor in 2019.  The whole concept of a “hiatus” has completely disappeared.  https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46374141

This link as a great chart of the El Nino/La Nina cycle back to 1950.  It clearly shows the dominance of La Nina conditions between 1998 and 2015.  The coming El Nino will probably be either weak or moderate by all accounts, probably not strong enough for a new record hot year but conceivably quite close.    https://www.ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

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Scientists are saying the actual impacts of climate change are more extensive and worse than they had expected.  More than a dozen older researchers who were interviewed by AP say they were much to conservative in their forecasts, back in the 1990s, about the coming effects on daily lives, even when right about temperature increases.  A number of them are heard from in this post, with examples.  (The opening video is an older piece, previously reported in another letter, that is mostly about temperature sensitivity.)

https://climatecrocks.com/2018/11/29/weve-underestimated-climate-impacts/

A new study envisions the importance of preserving entire ecosystems over and above individual species.  “When you have species on the move because of environmental upheaval, or you force species together into communities in which they did not co-evolve, those systems are almost invariably less successful than systems where species have shared histories…..Today, we can’t tinker with ecosystems, have them fall apart functionally, and expect life to carry on and recover in a way that normally takes tens of thousands of years to happen. The fossil record shows this approach isn’t sustainable…..The ecological systems we have today are documented products of geological and evolutionary history–they’re not easily made nor easily recovered.”

 

Mongabay has a lengthy report on the many disadvantages of hydroelectric dams.  “Hydroelectric power accounts for about 70 percent of the world’s renewable energy supply, yet large dams have been widely criticized for their disappointing energy outputs, short lifespans, and negative impacts on local ecosystems and people. After proliferating in North America and Europe in the mid-20th Century, hydroelectric fell out of favor there in the 1970s and more dams are being removed than constructed nowadays…..But hydroelectric development didn’t stop, it moved location – thousands of dams have been built in developing nations since the 1970s, with many more planned…..Dams also exacerbate climate change by releasing methane from decomposing vegetation in flooded forests – a problem that is especially virulent in the tropics where many mega-dams were recently built, and continue being constructed.”   https://news.mongabay.com/2018/11/mega-dam-costs-outweigh-benefits-global-building-spree-should-end-experts/

Carl

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