A new way to determine Earth’s CO2 history has been developed. This is very exciting because the method appears to be at least as credible as others that are commonly employed, and probably more so, and because it extends much farther back in time, to about 500 million years ago. We know much more about climate conditions in the deep past than we do about the corresponding CO2 levels that may have been largely responsible, so now we can make the association with more confidence than ever. We’ll have a better idea of what is in store for us (upon reaching equilibrium) once the current CO2 level reaches 450, then 500 and so on, and of course today’s 408 level when it reaches an equilibrium state down the road a ways, perhaps a hundred years from now.
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–Access to the full study: http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/11/eaat4556
–This link has a figure containing the full CO2 history as determined by the work done so far. Future work should provide a closer look at the details for specific periods of interest.
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New research into the way polar region climates are connected, with a focus on changes in the AMOC. The study of rapid changes that took place in the past provides clues to the outcome of what is happening today. In particular, “The researchers say that if the past is a guide for what the future may hold, the weakening of the AMOC likely will decrease the potency of Asian monsoons and billions of people depend on that rain for their livelihood. The changing wind patterns in the southern hemisphere also will lessen the ocean’s ability to take up carbon dioxide, meaning more CO2 emissions will stay in the atmosphere, strengthening the greenhouse effect.” The current AMOC weakening is largely attributed to oceanic cooling effects due to Greenland’s extensive meltwater production.
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The odds have risen that many regions will experience extreme heat and extreme dryness in the same time period. “A new study from Stanford University suggests that the kind of hot, dry conditions that can shrink crop yields, destabilize food prices and lay the groundwork for devastating wildfires are increasingly striking multiple regions simultaneously as a result of a warming climate.” Historically this has not been the usual pattern, but that has changed. “For example, the odds that China and India—two of the world’s largest agricultural producers and the two most populous nations—both experience low precipitation and extremely warm temperatures in the same year have gone from less than 5 percent before 1980 to more than 15 percent today…..So, what used to be a rare occurrence can now be expected to occur with some regularity, and we have very strong evidence that global warming is the cause…..achieving the emissions reduction targets in the 200-nation pact would allow the world to dramatically reduce the likelihood of compounding hot, dry conditions hitting multiple croplands across the world. There are still options for mitigating these changes.” Is anybody listening?
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-regions-increasingly-hot-conditions.html
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-regions-increasingly-hot-conditions.html
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What climate change is doing to Somaliland. This is a real-life example of what can happen when high temperatures and drought combine, as in the story above. “The impact has been catastrophic for the nation of 3.5m people, where livestock farming accounts for about 70 per cent of economic activity.”
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Opportunities for successful development of ecofriendly bioplastics are said to exist. The authors of this report from The Conversation make a good case for stepping up the research required for making a substantial transition from petroleum-based plastics a reality. Among the many advantages, much less energy is required in the production process and finished products that are not biodegradable would still function as a means of sequestering carbon that was originally taken from the atmosphere.