Climate Letter #1879

Regular readers know that I have developed my own theory about a major source of global temperature changes. The theory is focused primarily on short-term changes, the kind that show up on the daily anomaly charts, but does not exclude the potential for long-term relevance. The cornerstone of the theory is based on my own, possibly unique, understanding of the extraordinary role played by one of the greenhouse gases, water vapor. Compared with all other greenhouse gases, water vapor is recognized as clearly the strongest of all in terms of ability to block a wide assortment of bands of outgoing surface radiation. It is also recognized as the only such gas that is not evenly distributed (or well-mixed) throughout the entire atmosphere, which normally would mean settling into a stabilized percentage of the entire gas content of the atmosphere, all because of the very brief airborne lifetime of any individual molecule of H2O.

This combination of very strong powers and geographical distribution that is unevenly dispersed, by a truly radical extent, has prompted a need for scientific inquiries into the potential limits of variability in the atmosphere, given that a certain amount of variability is inevitable. Science has answered this challenge by invoking the principles of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, which limits water vapor content to a fixed percentage of the atmosphere. Under this rule, any production of vapor exceeding that percentage will swiftly result in condensation of the excess, which by association sets a limit to the vapor’s greenhouse power. The percentage figure is of interest because it is adjustable. Whenever the temperature of a parcel of air rises by one degree C, that particular parcel will be able to hold about 7% more water vapor without condensing. The parcel can always hold less than the maximum amount, and usually does, commonly reported as relative humidity, but never more.

My theory contends that the rules and principles of Clausius-Clapeyron may be of high evidence near Earth’s surface, but once water vapor has been transported to a level several miles or more above the surface we are confronted with a new reality. For one thing, the vapor will most likely have begun to condense to some extent, causing a mixture to form which is commonly identified by the name of precipitable water (PW). Any reference to water vapor at this level is then effectively dropped, with all remaining vapor, which is not precisely measurable, being covered in full by the new name. (Surface vapor is typically included as a part of “total” PW.) The mixture, with a few rare exceptions, is entirely composed of the same molecules as vapor alone, in that sense as if there were no condensation, but now we are in for a surprise. Whenever concentrations of the total mixture are measured, which is done with considerable accuracy and regularity, large parcels are observed having concentrations much, much greater than one could ever expect, given the thinness of the atmosphere at high levels and how cold it is up there.

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Before saying goodbye to Clausius-Clapeyron we should at least do some kind of test to see if the PW concentrations we are observing, according to the measurements, are actually real. Why not use the greenhouse test? If a large parcel of high concentration is real, not just an illusion, it should be capable of generating a correspondingly high greenhouse effect on air temperatures at the surface directly below. By a stroke of good fortune we have all the information we need directly in hand, ready to make such a test. I’ve been doing it by myself, every day, over a great many different parts of the globe, and have provided illustrated reports of the test results on many of those days. The high concentrations, while widely fragmented, must be real because the high temperatures they produce are real. And so are low temperatures likely to be realized whenever the PW readings for a location are lower than usual.

Once this cornerstone is in place, freed of any tight limitation by principles ruling the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, we must be ready to start asking new questions,. What determines the amount of new evaporation that can be delivered to the upper troposphere? Are there any limits? Why so much fragmentation? What determines its overall behavior, along with the likely lifespan of its molecules, once it arrives at this level? What are the causes of condensation, if not the C-C rules? We can even wonder about the possibility of long-term implications. There are plenty of ideas in sight for formulating answers.

Carl

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