In the “new” science of climate change precipitable water (PW), viewed holistically, could very well be recognized as the preeminent producer of greenhouse energy effects. Unlike the effects of well-mixed gases like CO2 and methane, which unfold at a snail’s pace—either up or down—over long periods of time, the effects of PW can vary substantially from day to day. Moreover, the effect of every variation follows the cause with no delay. There is one more point, not to be overlooked. When it comes down to taking measure of the strength of PW effects on surface temperatures, a matter of normal interest with respect to every producer of greenhouse energy, PW is in a class of its own. For any one regional location, which fortunately never includes the entire planetary surface, temperature changes as great as 10 or 20 degrees C, either up or down, can and often do occur within a single day or two. Well-mixed gases, which only affect the entire planetary surface at any given time, generally require many years to cause changes large enough to be distinctively measured.
If all of this is true, and you need not take my word for it, why does science take so little interest in making studies fully covering the greenhouse energy effect of precipitable water? I have theories, but it would be better to ask the professors. Have they simply overlooked the possibility of viewing PW holistically, or have they made such studies and and found reason to believe the temperature consequences I have described are not meaningful? Is it possible that the dramatic short-term changes we see every day will simply balance themselves out and have no independent lasting effects in the long run? In that case, while a few local inconveniences are certain to occur, over the long run the well-mixed gases, with the aid of tightly connected feedbacks and eventually followed by expected changes in the Earth system, would presumably remain in full control over future developments.
That argument, if well-crafted, should be conclusive, but I wonder about whether PW, viewed holistically, has really been given the study it deserves as a feedback, similar to current studies of cloud cover albedo effects, for example. Cloud cover greenhouse effects are indeed studied independently, although not to the extent of opposing albedo effects, with inconclusive results. Water vapor’s powerful greenhouse effects are also studied independently, resulting in the conclusion that the effects can be pigeon-holed in a linear manner as feedback consequences of CO2 activity. Cloud cover droplets and gaseous water vapor are the two principal components of PW, both recognized independently as significant producers of greenhouse energy effects, but seldom, if ever, referred to in their almost exclusively holistic combination from that standpoint. I keep looking for new studies that might mention the possibility, but never see any. It’s like a line of forbiddance has been drawn, and students are being told not to cross it.
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Carl