“How two-thirds of Earth’s surface is warmed by greenhouse effects created by high-altitude streams of concentrated water vapor.” This is the tentative title of a paper I would like to see in print, if I can ever find the energy to compose it properly. In the meantime these letters will have to suffice as the medium of dissemination. I think this is a subject that climate science has overlooked and will eventually add to its curriculum because it adds to our total understanding of how global air temperatures are composed and some basic mechanisms of possible change. The theoretical work I am uncovering, tied to a few landmarks of evidence, is nothing more than a rough sketch of what the science might look like when fully developed.
Most of the details of the theory have been expressed and illustrated repeatedly in previous letters, beginning in early April of this year. I am still finding some little things to add or modify but the principle framework is in place. New evidence that can be illustrated comes into view every day. Some of this evidence is unprecedented, such as that which involves the current warming events in the Arctic. The conglomeration of circumstances surrounding these events needs to be recorded for future reference, which is where most of my energy is going right now and is likely to remain for awhile. I will also keep adding more points of clarification or amplification as they arise, with a couple of them in mind for today.
First off, if only two-thirds of the planet is affected this way, what about the other third? That part is practically synonymous with the tropical belt, except for some seasonal effects and a few minor deviations. There is always a vast amount of high-altitude water vapor hovering over the tropics but the bulk of it doesn’t go anywhere. No alternate wind system is available to carry it away, so it just accumulates and rains out, mostly back into locations in the tropical zone. The pure vapor that remains up high cannot have much of an effect below when tropical air at the surface is already thick with vapor. Nor do proportions between high and low vapor change much from day to day or over the course of a year. I think the animated website images that were discussed two days ago give ample support to these observations and reveal how completely different the situation is in both of the other two thirds.
On another topic, I want to add a detail about the potential for outbound vapor streams to cause some extra warming of surface air as a feedback. Warming is initiated simply by the arrival of more vapor overhead, adding its greenhouse energy to that already being supplied by vapor that is native to the surface. The latter is determined by the regular capacity of surface air to evaporate from all different local sources. As soon as that air has been warmed by the effects of overhead vapor streams its capacity for evaporating still more moisture from the surface rises as well, at a fixed rate specified by the laws of physics. We might expect this operation to begin without delay. The result, to the extent it succeeds, should add one more increment of warmth to the surface air just because it holds more vapor of its own. Once the overhead vapor has moved on the process will go into reverse, except that the moisture that has been taken from the surface may not easily be replaced. Soils in particular can dry out and stay dry. A new study has been published that deals with the reality this phenomenon, called “atmospheric thirst,” and the problems it causes, using a different perspective regarding explanation. EurekAlert has a review of the study that is well worth your attention, at https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-11/dri-cca111920.php
The Weather Map site has again been down all morning and is now back up. Here is today’s view of the Arctic as seen from the Asian side. Note the +6.8C anomaly inside the circle, a new high, and the still growing area of +20 warming for ocean air north of the Bering Strait.
Carl