Climate Letter #1265

A story about a huge ice cap on the Russian High Arctic of a type that was not supposed to surge, but it did.  John Abraham reviews a study based on observations that took scientists completely by surprise, as the glacier once hit speeds up to 82 feet in a single day.  John explains how different types of glaciers have a different potential for movement.  This one has an almost entirely frozen bed and is almost entirely above sea level in a cold but rapidly warming region, with no previous history of surging.  The phenomenon suggests there is considerable risk of an increasing rate of sea level rise.

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Longer-lasting weather patterns in North America can be attributed to effects caused by the rapid warming of the Arctic.  Jennifer Francis is the lead author of a new study which finds an increase in events lasting four or more days, making negative features much more destructive, and finds a relationship to changes in large-scale, upper-level atmospheric patterns.  “The results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm and melt, it’s likely that long-duration events will continue to occur more often, meaning that weather patterns—heat waves, droughts, cold spells and stormy conditions—will likely become more persistent…..When these conditions last a long time, they can become extreme events, as we’ve seen so often in recent years.”
https://phys.org/news/2018-09-persistent-weather-patterns-linked-arctic.html

George Monbiot challenges the ideologue of economic growth and consumerism.  This story covers a lot of critical ground as he makes one good point after another with practically flawless logic and even adds some choice bits of new information.  He ends with an appeal to people who understand these things to become more vocal, which might eventually catch the ear of the political class.  Amen.
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Some academics have begun considerations of how humanity should respond in the event that efforts to avoid catastrophic climate change run out of time and fall short.  There is a new field of study called “deep adaptation,” which is described in this article from a mainstream Bloomberg business publication.  The governing principle is much like that which is regularly employed in the face of an advancing hurricane, with mass evacuations, etc., except on a larger scale.  Rather sobering, but it is admittedly better to make such plans than not to.
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China is planning to expand its transition to clean energy for electric power.  The new goal is 35% by 2030, which is up from the original 20%.  Penalties are set for operators who do not comply.  This is progress, except for the good possibility that China’s economic growth may cause power consumption to grow at a rate fast enough to prevent fossil fuel consumption from falling even as the new renewable goal is being met.
–Another story today casts doubt on China’s willingness to keep promises it has already made.  “Chinese coal-fired power plants, thought to have been cancelled because of government edicts, are still being built and are threatening to “seriously undermine” global climate goals, researchers have warned.”
Carl

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