Climate Letter #1264

What effect does rising heat have on human life?  Tim Radford has put together a pretty good summary, with many links to different sources of coverage.  It clearly demonstrates that a hotter planet is associated with a rising death rate.

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–As you may know by now, I have taken an interest in the fact that temperatures on land, or on top of the continents where nearly all of us live, are rising faster than the global average, which is heavily weighted by the slower rising air temperatures over the oceans.  I think most of the studies in Tim’s essay are based on projections of the global average, not land.  Any number of charts will tell you that the global average has been rising at a steady rate of 0.17C per decade for the last 40 years or so.  That translates into one-half degree every three decades.  The link below, using a chart provided by NOAA, is a good one for showing how fast the average over land has been growing during this period.  It lacks the convenience of a perfectly-set moving average, but I think it is fair to say that the rate of rise for the past 40 years is either 0.30C per decade or maybe just a bit less.  That means when the globe is rising one-half degree we are getting nine-tenths on land, or almost a double.  Will things stay that way?  I don’t know.  Are most warming projections understating the true risk?  Same answer, but it seems probable enough to cause an uneasy feeling.  The science community should get busy and start looking more closely at this data and its implications.  (This same website has many interactive ways to work with the database.)  https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land/6/8/1970-2018

What is coal ash, and why is it dangerous?  The New York Times has answers to many of the questions that have come up in the wake of Hurricane Florence.
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An inside view of the Amazon rainforest (CS Monitor).  This is a part of the globe that could that could undergo rapid and dramatic change, with devastating consequences, in the event of a tipping point being reached.  Many scientists think that tipping point is close at hand unless something changes.
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Scientists are getting a better handle on the annual volume of CO2 emissions from volcanoes.  There is no reason to believe there is an increasing trend but the total amount is significant, the pace is irregular and customary estimates are probably far too low.  That means this natural source can have a marked effect on observed variations of total CO2 change from one year to the next.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/09/ice-covered-icelandic-volcano-may-emit-more-carbon-dioxide-all-country-s-other?

Carl

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