A new study has found direct evidence of significant ice loss from East Antarctica during three of the last four interglacial periods. One of those periods was the Eemian, which was the most recent, about 125,000 years ago. Other studies have found scattered evidence around the world that sea level rose six to nine meters at one point during the Eemian, when global average temperatures were not much higher than those of today. Such an increase would require a significant contribution from the mammoth East Antarctic Ice Sheet, and that is exactly what the new study has been able to determine by analyzing sediments in the ocean floor adjacent to one of the three large basins where such melting would be most likely to occur. The authors believe it would take about 2000 years to achieve that much melting. (As others have pointed out, a lesser but still fairly large amount of sea level rise could originate from Greenland and West Antarctica over a much shorter time frame.) The conclusion: “These periods could be analogues for future climates and it seems likely that ice loss from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet contributed to those higher sea levels…..With current global temperatures already one degree higher than during pre-industrial times, future ice loss seems inevitable if we fail to reduce carbon emissions.”
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–Here is a link to the study, not in full but with access to the Abstract and to a number of Figures which can be opened and looked at. Fig. 3 has the most useful perspective on interglacial relationships.
–One more note: This study does not talk about CO2 levels. All of the records I’ve seen show CO2 topping out at around 300 ppm or less during all of the last eight interglacial periods, vs plus-400 today. The required heat for this much melting would have to come from some other source, such as a different positioning of the orbital cycles that will return the same way in the distant future.
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An internal report has some good advice for the UN. According to the authors of the task force, “The UN currently lacks a system-wide lead, coordination mechanism, or strategy on disaster displacement, including related to climate change…..NGO observers expressed frustration at a perceived unwillingness from developed countries to provide new money for this agenda.” Moreover, they need to find a way to head off the anti-immigration political movements that are arising in a number of these same countries.
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There are big concerns about declining populations of beneficial insects, the absence of which can lead to ecological disasters. Climate change has a small role in the decline but is not considered to be one of the major contributors. Once again, an extraordinary range of misguided human activities seem to be responsible, and remedies on a correspondingly large scale seem to be needed in good time. https://www.kqed.org/science/1931569/why-are-beneficial-bugs-disappearing
An argument in favor of 100% electrification as the surest way to fully decarbonize. We now know that tremendous amounts of electric power can be cheaply produced by carbon-free energy sources. The coming challenge will be to fully adapt electrical power to heating, transportation and all kinds of industrial processes as quickly as possible.
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An incredibly efficient (85%) photovoltaic solar cell has been created in a laboratory in Japan, but the materials are too expensive for commercialization. “It is, however, yet another instance of the ingenuity and imagination at work in the world’s universities and laboratories,” as scientists seek answers to climate change. Maybe there is a way around the cost problem, with other materials?
Carl