Climate Letter #1261

What the peak in fossil fuel demand looks like from an investment point of view.  This well-thought-out argument is interesting as a warning to investors and also serves as a realistic guideline for the trend of future emissions, which are not slated to peak until the mid-2020s.  (The CO2 level would still be likely to grow enough to pass 450 ppm by mid-century.)  Emerging markets are key to timing the actual swing.  The video talk is very good, short and to the point.

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A fundamental reason for why the demand for fossil fuels is so strong.  It’s all about prices, which the OECD has figured are 76.5% too low.  Their report says, “The pricing gap had narrowed, from 79.5 percent in 2015, but “carbon prices need to increase considerably more quickly than they have done in recent years in order to ensure a cost-effective low-carbon transition.”  Carbon taxes would be required to fill most of that gap.  (This same post from Reuters has several more of today’s climate stories worthy of a look.)
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Large-scale development of wind and solar farms could actually improve the climate in desert areas.  A new study explains how increases in rainfall become possible for places like the Sahel and even the Sahara.  Along with direct effects that are described, feedbacks that occur on the ground would promote still more rain.
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New understanding of a major basalt flooding event that occurred 16 million years ago.  This was a huge, long-lasting volcanic eruption around the Columbia River in Washington state, now confirmed as the source of the large CO2 increase that caused the anomalous global warmup in the mid-Miocene era known as the MMCO.  “The MMCO could be a parallel to our current climate, and further work investigating the timing and duration of that event will tell us more about how we can expect Earth to recover from anthropogenic climate change….. For instance, if the climate stayed warm for a million years after the volcanoes stopped erupting, as now looks possible, that could have significant implications for predicting how long the atmosphere will respond to human-caused global warming.”
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Turtles survived the major extinction event that killed off the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.  Now they are one of the most-endangered groups of species suffering from the current pressures assaulting much of the animal kingdom.  Mongabay has produced a fine presentation of the history of these ancient creatures, their contribution to all kinds of ecosystems and the significance of events now observed.
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A quick overview of all the main factors that make California wildfires so destructive:
Carl

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