Michael Mann writes for The Guardian about the growing threat from hurricanes. He points out several reasons for why today’s hurricanes tend to be more destructive, on average, than those of the past. The steady warming of ocean waters makes a key difference in almost every situation, and warm ocean waters in a particular region will always add something to the temperature of the air above, which can then hold more vapor. I believe Dr. Mann could have added more by talking about increases in evaporation rate and area of coverage, which is the ultimate source of all the water that is available to rain out. That involves a combination of heat, wind speed and overall diameter of the storm as well as its pace of movement when it passes over land. Incredible flooding may become a common effect of ordinary tropical storms as well as hurricanes, and thus become one of the most feared effects of climate change for our own generation, in our own time.
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–When moving across the ocean a hurricane should leave behind a trail of cool water due to all the heat that has been withdrawn by the unusual evaporation. You can clearly spot such a trail for Florence, which has now drifted a bit to the north, in the Weather Map at this link. If you click on SST Anomaly it shows up just as clearly, but in blue. Also, if you drop down to the world map you can see a similar trail for Typhoon Manghut off the coast of northern Luzon in the Philippines, not quite so well preserved by this time.
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Some scientists are now talking about the prospect of Category 6 hurricanes, or worse. According to Jeff Masters, “A ‘black swan’ hurricane – a storm so extreme and wholly unprecedented that no one could have expected it – hit the Lesser Antilles Islands in October 1780……Deservedly called The Great Hurricane of 1780, no Atlantic hurricane in history has matched its death toll of 22,000. So intense were the winds of the Great Hurricane that it peeled the bark off of trees – something only EF5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 200mph have been known to do.” He and others think there will be more of these coming.
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Hydrogen-powered passenger trains are now running in Germany, replacing diesel. They are more expensive to produce but cheaper to run, and much more eco-friendly. Other countries are expressing an interest.
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A new report calls for major cuts in meat and dairy production in the EU. Rapidly growing demand for these products is unsustainable for a number of reasons, including high emission of greenhouse gases and nitrogen pollution. Close to 80% of the planet’s agricultural land is now used for grazing and animal feed production.
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Something totally unexpected has happened in Russia. I have always thought that the Russian government, because of the country’s (and oligarchs’) dependence on oil and gas revenues, was fully in accord with the Trump government with respect to the environment and climate change policies. That has now been cast into doubt, because of the publication of a devastating 900-page report from a major ministry—equivalent to our EPA—about the past and future consequences of climate change. It must have had the approval of Putin himself but there are no statements to that effect. Depending on the followup, this could be quite meaningful for international climate action.
Carl