A problem to fix. In two recent Climate Letters, #1239 and 1250, I posted a certain link which worked fine in my computer but probably not in any others because of the way the page had been converted from pdf to HTML for easy filing. My mistake. Here I will show how you can open the page with no need to send an attachment. Go first via this link to a set of charts from James Hansen’s website–
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/. Below the first chart, on the fifth line down, click the link with the 1880-1920 base period, which opens onto a different chart that has some improvements but only via pdf. This is what I think is one of the most important climate charts that exists for us to reckon with, and should not be buried this way. Please go back to those two earlier letters and read again about why it is so useful.
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As a sidebar, there is an interesting “widget” that will give you some idea of how much excess heat has been collected by the Earth and held in storage, mostly at depth in the oceans. That oceanic heat has created new climate conditions, so to speak, for almost all kinds of marine species that live in those waters. Those of us who live on land have a totally different kind of climate, heated in a different sort of way, with the focus on air temperature, not water.
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Now, keep the above chart handy while I give you the link to another, also from Hansen’s website, which records the average
global temperature, this time through 2017, using the same base period…
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/ —This is basically the official record of anomaly that is constantly referred to, including the basis for understanding the targets set by the Paris Agreement. You can see how the numbers all sit in relation to those shown in the chart that has the land and ocean averages. These numbers are created by averaging the other two sets, weighted by about 70% in favor of oceans and 30% land. That means whatever the oceans are doing, usually with respect to the way they swallow and stow away excess incoming energy, is heavily reflected in the makeup of the global average. The actual trend on land, over any corresponding period, can be quite different, but not get the full attention it deserves. This has been happening most of the time ever since 1975, with one big exception, the 2015-16 El Nino event, which temporarily created a huge change in the overall surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean. That was enough to sharply raise the average for all oceans. (The same event also caused temperatures on land to rise abnormally, but for a different set of reasons.) One should always keep in mind the fact that, on balance, air temperatures at the bottom of the atmosphere, while in constant exchange, tend to closely match existing temperatures of the dense surfaces of the globe, either solid or liquid, that lie directly below.
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Speaking of wind movement, there is something going on right now in the Atlantic that adds a great deal to this narrative, well told in the main video in the link below. Ocean heat buildup can be removed in a very special way, and most abruptly, by what we call hurricanes. The result is a local cooling of the warm ocean surface and underlying body as well, but not in a way we consider a blessing. Is this going to be the kind of wake-up call about climate change that Americans seem to require?
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In future days I am going to write more about this land and ocean split, and what it may mean for the big picture. One quick thought, which I mentioned in an earlier letter, is that if we could completely stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere we might simultaneously gain a complete stop to the increase of air temperatures over land. In that respect, while we have already lost the 1.5C race we would still have an opportunity to stay under 2.0, while hanging on around where we are now–on land, that is. We’d still be watching the oceans add heat at depth and on the surface until, like the land is largely doing even now, the ocean surface was able to release as much energy out to space as it was collecting from inputs. All such release activity will remain impeded by existing levels of greenhouse gases until those levels are somehow reduced, greatly so, which will be the next big challenge.
Carl