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How future permafrost emissions have been underestimated. This post was written for Carbon Brief by the four scientists who published an important study last month about dynamic thawing from what are called thermokarst lakes in Alaska. Here they discuss their findings in everyday language, including a disturbing message about future greenhouse gas emissions that are beyond human control and have not previously been recognized by climate scientists. “Our findings show that the lack of understanding of Arctic lake dynamics and the neglect of implementing these aspects into global climate models can result in strongly underestimating greenhouse gas emissions from degrading permafrost landscapes…..Formation and expansion of thermokarst lakes will accelerate the release of permafrost carbon. This means that the permafrost-carbon feedback will be globally important within several decades from now as opposed to centuries.”
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Wisconsin’s catastrophic flooding is a glimpse into the future for the Midwest. This post features comments from scientists at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, who were themselves flooded out. “The scale of what is happening is absolutely unbelievable to witness.” They had previously constructed models projecting what was supposed to be a worst-case scenario for later in this century. Those results were matched in actuality by current events. The main source of all the water is the Gulf of Mexico, which has been regularly setting records for heat content.
–This link to a story from the Washington Post about the Gulf of Mexico is over a year old, but still worth a look:
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An extremely rare event that happened in Alaska three years ago has been analyzed. The fourth largest tsunami of the past century was caused by climate change, and events like it could happen again.
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Summer nights in the US this year were the hottest on record. There is a simple explanation for why nighttime temperatures are warming more rapidly than those of daytime. Incoming radiation during the day is divided about 50/50 between solar and greenhouse gas, while night is all greenhouse. The incoming total from the sun is not growing at all, but that’s not so for the greenhouse effect, which keeps growing and working the same way at night as during the day. That means the overall rate of growth will be greater at night, though from a lower base.
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How climate change affects the activity of bird and bee pollinators (Yale Climate Connections). “You’re already stressing out a lot of these organisms and it’s hard to imagine what they’d do when you repeatedly stress them out.”
Carl