Another new worry about rapidly melting permafrost has emerged (National Geographic). The big story reported here yesterday was based on years of thorough scientific field research, making it quite conclusive. This one is based on anecdotal material, but the facts revealed are quite startling and perhaps consequential, enough so to attract the attention of several top scientists. In this case it has to do with ground surfaces that fail to freeze in winter, even when the air is bitterly cold, because of the early arrival of extremely thick snow cover. “The stakes are high. If a region’s active layer stops freezing consistently, consequences can be swift. Once unfrozen, soil microbes in the active layer can decompose organic material and release greenhouse gases year-round—not just in summer. And it exposes permafrost below to more heat so that layer, too, can begin thawing and releasing gases.” The high Arctic is changing more rapidly than any other region of the planet.
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A decline in summer rainfall correlates with the severity of wildfires. Scientists have learned that this may be even more important than the rise in air temperatures, which also closely correlate. The well-measured decline in rainfall is being linked to changes in wind patterns that are affected by changes in Arctic sea ice. “They found, on average, forests experienced one less wetting rain day per decade, while the worst affected forests experienced six fewer days per decade…..In addition, the researchers found that the average length of dry spells increased in many parts of the western US from one decade to the next.”
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A major study just published has the first comprehensive review of how the warming of the Arctic changes the atmosphere of North America in ways that often prolong weather patterns to the point of extremity, What scientists call ‘planetary waves’, better known to the rest of us as the jet stream, are being severely distorted from their natural patterns. “Usually the waves, conveying chains of high- and low-pressure domains, travel eastward between the equator and the North Pole. Yet when they get trapped due to a subtle resonance mechanism, they slow down so the weather in a given region gets stuck. Rains can grow into floods, sunny days into heat waves, and tinder-dry conditions into wildfires.” This basically confirms what Jennifer Rogers and others have been postulating for the last several years in a more intuitive way.
–The full study has open access: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05256-8
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From The Guardian, an update on Arctic sea ice developments this summer. No records are being set for the volume or extent of melting, but some some phenomena are being recorded for the first time ever, including effects on the oldest and thickest ice that lies directly north of Greenland. Some experts are predicting delays in the timing of the next refreezing period, which begins after mid-September.
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How energy sources are globally distributed—the historical pattern (Axios). These two charts clearly show the major changes that have occurred since 1800, dominated by the growth of all three fossil fuel types. Today, renewables are growing just fast enough to replace declines in nuclear power. The three fossils are holding on to their share of the total, and the total is growing at about the same rate as always. The bottom Line: “To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, renewables and new technologies will need to do more than build atop CO2–intensive fossil fuels.”
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Where the Gods play football (The Siberian Times). A neat story, with great photography,
Carl