A new report shows how melting permafrost is indeed a dangerous source of carbon release. This is a subject that climate scientists are very worried about but until now there have been too many uncertainties involved for proper conclusions to be drawn. A 12-year study taken from representatives of hundreds of ‘thermokarst’ lakes in Alaska and Siberia has determined that rapid and deep thawing of permafrost beneath those lakes releases far more greenhouse gas, especially methane, than anyone has previously realized. The amounts are much too large to be offset by any possible increase in vegetation growth. “Adding thermokarst methane to the models makes the feedback’s effect similar to that of land-use change, which is the second-largest source of human-made warming. Unlike shallow, gradual thawing of terrestrial permafrost, the abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes is irreversible this century. Even climate models that project only moderate warming this century will have to factor in their emissions, according to the study.” I believe the authors of the study have impeccable qualifications and cannot reasonably be ignored in the creation of climate models, or by the IPCC.
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–This website shows several details of the processes involved in the melting:
–A link to the full study, which has open access:
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A new report about the perils of climate change has been published by a pair of Australians who can be compared to the American Bill McKibben for their deep experience and communicating history as students of this subject. The work is especially noteworthy because it earned an introduction penned by one of the world’s most distinguished scientists, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, who acted as an advisor. You can read about and download the report at this link:
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An expanded view of the difference between land and ocean temperature changes. In my previous letter I linked to a chart showing the trend for each of these changes since 1950, using a 1951-1980 baseline that needs to be adjusted. Now I’ve found another chart from Hansen of these two trends that is larger and clearer, starts in1880 and has an earlier base period, one that is about equivalent to a preindustrial figure. All that is missing is 2017 data, which has dipped a bit from 2016. The divergence between land and sea is evident, and so is the fact that the spread between them has been continuously widening for the past thirty years. And land, where almost everyone actually lives, is now running ahead of the 1.5C limit that the Paris Agreement so anxiously wants us to avoid. We are already there, but temperatures above the ocean surface have not caught up for reasons explained in CL #1236. Scientists should better acknowledge that the fast feedbacks to a CO2 forcing (like water vapor) are indeed very, very fast when operating over land but a good bit slower over the ocean surface, where the energy that has been captured is constantly leaking away, in part, to the depths below, either for long-term storage or to do some mischief if it circulates to places where ice is exposed. Because oceans cover 70& of the planetary surface they have considerable leverage over the numbers reported for “average global temperature”, a reading specifically assigned to the lowest part of the lower atmosphere.
–If you go back to this link from the Kevin Trenberth story in Friday’s letter and scroll down a ways you’ll see a chart showing all the energy that has been taken downward from the ocean surfaces since 1985, energy that did not find its way into the atmosphere in the way it would have day after day if it were absorbed on land.
Carl