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David Wallace-Wells has a review of the newly published study from a group of Earth system scientists (New York magazine). This one has more details than the one I found for yesterday’s letter, and for a journalist David is unusually adept at reporting this rather alarming type of message. The authors of the study have themselves produced a message that needs no embellishment when it comes to stark realism. As David says, “These sorts of warnings are published with some frequency on the fringe. But the scientists behind the PNAS paper are probably the most distinguished yet to be raising this particular alarm — that the scientific community has dramatically understated the existential risk posed by climate change, and that the scientists who had previously been disregarded as alarmists may be, in fact, the more reliable guides to our near future.”
–Another review of the study (The Guardian) includes a diagram showing many of the dominoes in the Earth system that have widespread effects when they fall:
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A contrary view: The Trump administration has issued a statement predicting that as a result of its emission rules the CO2 level in the atmosphere will reach 789.76 ppm by the end of this century. Further, “The administration’s chart attempts to prove that there will be little noticeable effect on global temperatures as a result of its plan, triggering 3/1,000ths of a degree Celsius increase in global average temperatures by 2100.” A number of scientists have posted comments questioning the merits of these conclusions.
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What the drought in eastern Australia is doing to farmers. It is already one of the worst on record, and there is no end in sight.
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Half of the Great Barrier Reef has been bleached to death since 2016 (National Geographic). That is the tragic conclusion reported and explained in the August issue of the magazine. There is little hope of recovery for the dead sections.
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Joe Romm reviews a new study of the megadrought that wrecked the Mayan empire 1200 years ago. There is no room for doubt that future droughts of equal severity can occur in adjacent parts of North America, which includes the US Southwest. Romm goes on to explain how current policies and practices are heading in the same direction and could end up making things even worse.
–The story includes a link to another Romm report that is now a year old but still completely relevant to the drought issue and other aspects of extreme climate change that are in store for North America.
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A new study that used cutting-edge computer models explains why the BECCS idea for capturing carbon is misguided. “The results warn that using BECCS on such a large scale could lead to a net increase of carbon in the atmosphere, especially where the crops are assumed to replace existing forests.” BECCS is often treated as the best available option for meeting the carbon removal requirement that is a key part of the budget that sits behind the possibility of meeting either of the Paris targets. (Without carbon removal, or “negative emissions growth,” the budget for meeting the 1.5C target is already overdrawn.)
https://phys.org/news/2018-08-forests-crucial-limiting-climate-degrees.html
https://phys.org/news/2018-08-forests-crucial-limiting-climate-degrees.html
Carl