Climate Letter #1203

Posted on June 28, 2018 by Carl Campbell

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A new world record for hottest minimum temperature for any one day, 42.6C (109F).  It happened on June 26th at a city in Oman.  The previous record high low was also reported from Oman, which is part of an extraordinarily hot zone surrounding the Persian Gulf.
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How large populations in southern Asia will be affected by rising temperatures (NY Times).  A UN study of six countries maps out locations where up to 800 million people could suffer a sharply reduced standard of living by 2050.  Most of those at greatest risk are impoverished to begin with.  The entire affected area is surrounded by high mountain ranges, leaving only a few small (and crowded) places possibly available for retreat.
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A new study explores the problem of “residual emissions.”  The study is not free to read but Brian Kahn provides an excellent summary of what the problem is about.  There are easy ways to get rid of emissions and there are more difficult ways, and unfortunately the difficult ways are large enough in scale to be a real problem if not resolved.  The required effort to wipe them out would far surpass the efforts we now have in mind that are needed to tackle the easy ones, which are still not close to being actually realized.  “I wish I could sugar coat it, but we’ve got our work cut out for us. And the clock is ticking,” says Kahn.
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Here is another fine review of the same study, containing a more detailed explanation of the full analysis.  From a lead author, “We found that even with enormous efforts by all countries, including early and substantial strengthening of the intended nationally determined contributions (the NDCs), our calculations show that residual fossil carbon emissions will remain at about 1000 Gigatons of CO2…..This seems to be a lower end of what can be achieved with even the most stringent climate policies, because much of the residual emissions are already locked-into the system due to existing infrastructures and dependencies on fossil fuels.”
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An independent assessment of progress toward climate mitigation in the UK.  This annual report, unrelated to the study described above, provides a perfect example of the contrast between meeting soft targets and bypassing the difficult ones, or those that make up residual emissions.
–A closeup look of why this problem exists, again with reference to Britain, but most other countries are no different in terms of favoring economic growth over everything else.
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An extract from a new book by Elizabeth Rush, Rising, about the coming transformation of the American shoreline.
Carl

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