What the long term future looks like, from a major new study. This study was the work of 59 scientists who mostly specialize in the study of ancient climates, like that of the Pliocene, when CO2 was as high or higher than it is today and temperatures often warmer for extended periods of time. That is basically the kind of environment referred to when defining the term “Earth System Sensitivity” or ESS. The entire climate system becomes rearranged in ways that are hard to imagine, or to model for that matter. Much can be learned by skillfully detecting actual conditions that existed under different circumstances in the past, and there are many ways to do so with reasonable confidence.
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–Here is a link to the full study, which does not have open access, but you can read the Abstract and also get quite a bit more information about the authors and their affiliations, the sponsors and the multitude of references that were openly relied upon. Also, click on Figures and especially check out the bottom panel in Figure 1, representing the best information available showing the path of CO2 levels over the past 4 million years. Bear in mind that we are destined to pass 450 in twenty years or less, with no clear way to turn back.
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Another study just published tells about an extreme climate shift that is taking place right now in the Barents Sea, adjoining the Arctic Ocean. Carbon Brief has the story, enhanced by author comments, and there is a link to the study itself, which has open access.
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Natural gas does not have the climate benefits that are claimed. That is because the amount of associated methane leakage, when carefully measured, is generally much higher than claimed. Joe Romm has the story.
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Earth’s lowest temperatures are reached in the center of Antarctica. The record has been set at minus-98C or 144F. The main requirements include high elevation (two miles), deep polar night, no cloud cover, perfectly dry air and little dips in the snow surface where trapped air can quietly puddle for a few days.
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There is an active volcanic heat source beneath Antarctica’s Pine Island glacier, which could have a role in speeding up the breakdown of this glacier. When thick glaciers melt the weight loss that results may allow the crust below to rise, which has recently been observed in this very spot (see CL#1199), and that in turn can introduce the kind of conditions that stimulate volcanism.
Carl