CO2 update. The atmospheric level has safely passed through its seasonal high for the year at Mauna Loa, with a peak almost exactly 2 ppm above that of last year when you smooth out the trend line of daily numbers (scroll down). That has been the norm every year in this century except for major El Nino years. The next turning point will be at the low in late September, most likely up 2 again, around 405. When will we see a change?
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A “landmark study”—new research into the potential benefits of increasing energy efficiency. There are all kinds of ways to maintain a high standard of living while sharply reducing demands for energy, and that is the best way to reduce fossil fuel usage. This kind of energy reduction would lower the very high bar for clean energy replacement, which may otherwise be unattainable, and also take pressure off of any requirement for extraordinary austerity measures. The authors of this study believe there are so many good opportunities for gaining energy efficiency that global warming can actually be kept within the 1.5C limit if they are all pursued, even without gains in negative emissions technology. Whether or not that is all true, the basic idea is extremely attractive and has virtually no risk or downside apart from the damage done to the fossil fuel industries and their associates.
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Another new study describes the economic and financial consequences of current developments in energy technology. These authors believe fossil fuels are doomed because of the rapid advances in both efficiency (as in the story above) and renewable alternatives, all because of favorable economics and regardless of what policy actions are taken. Businesses and whole nations (and even some political parties) that depend on profits from fossil fuels will face hard times. The authors are not too sanguine about where global temperatures will end up because they see so little time available to change the existing climate trajectory.
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Much higher estimates for Greenland’s temperature during the last interglacial period. An unusual discovery provides the evidence, adding ten or fifteen degrees to mid-summer estimates at the peak. There are implications for how Greenland contributed to sea level rise at that time and could do so again as current global temperatures keep moving higher. Earth’s orbital position periodically has a strong effect on polar temperatures but CO2 levels during all earlier interglacial periods are known to have maxed out below 300 ppm, nothing like what we have now reached.
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The plastic waste problem is suddenly getting lots of attention. I am seeing stories like this one every day, some of them hard to stomach. As far as oceanic animal life is concerned plastic pollution is probably even more dangerous than climate change at this particular time, and still gaining momentum.
Carl