Climate Letter #1185

A review of recent large heatwaves occurring within regional ocean waters.  There is an observed trend toward these phenomena getting hotter, lasting longer and doing more damage.  An international working group of scientists that is keeping track makes a report.

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–A separate report shows the harmful effects of warmer waters on ocean kelp forests, and why this is important.
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Low-level cloud cover has sharply declined in the greater Los Angeles area.  The decline occurs in the summer, and has been calculated at a stunning 25 to 50% since the 1970s.  The calculations were derived from data collected by numerous airports in the region and were matched up to another database showing that soil moisture in the region has been in a similar declining trend at the same time that the clouds were diminishing, thus adding to wildfire worries.  Previous studies have shown that low-level clouds have a distinct cooling effect, due mainly to the way they reflect sunlight, while other theories suggest that heat radiated from warm surfaces can cause these low clouds to dissipate or even prevent them from forming in the first place.  The overall effect would constitute a positive feedback once the surface has warmed enough to put this process in motion.  This knowledge has potentially widespread ramifications and is likely to get more attention.
–The California study can be found at this link:
–Reference to a related scientific study about cloud fundamentals from several years ago, which drew considerable attention at the time and is still being cited:
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From the London School of Economics, “Economic models significantly underestimate climate change risks.”  The authors say these models of the impact of climate change, which are widely used by policymakers, “are inadequate in their treatment of uncertainty and grossly underestimate potential future risks.”  They want the IPCC to take a more robust and vigorous approach to define these risks in monetary terms, effectively setting a price on each ton of CO2 that is emitted.  (I believe that could help to justify the need for a carbon tax as well as whatever value is assigned to such a tax.)  https://phys.org/news/2018-06-economic-significantly-underestimate-climate.html
–Here is a link to the full report:
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Another high-level report makes it clear that the pace of decarbonization is much too slow.  As these authors see it, “The low-carbon revolution is continuing apace in the electricity sector, but much more effort is still needed to accelerate change across heating, cooling and transport.”  They are particularly disturbed that large subsidies are still being committed to propping up the fossil fuel industries.
–A separate study found that in recent years the value of those subsidies spent by rich nations was at least $100 billion per year, in spite of pledges that were made to phase them out.
Carl

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