Climate Letter #1002

Weather Map findings:  Go to http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#T2_max  We want to look at maximum temperatures for today, down on the global map.  Look for light gray spots within the dark smudges in the red area, found in North Africa, Arabia and a touch in Pakistan.  The people who live in those areas are seeing highs today of 115F or better, and summer is already over.  Most of them have had even higher temperatures all through the past month or so, when this site first started showing maximums.  Now switch to the Temperature Anomaly link and check what that shows for these same locations compared with about 25 years ago.  They are all up around 10F, some even 15.  Worse yet, the anomaly pattern for this entire region has barely changed at all for the past month or two.  By contrast, most places jump back and forth between blue and brown with great frequency.  If you become a daily student of these maps that is one of the big things to watch out for.  Meanwhile, start praying for those folks in the light gray spots.

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Today, as with the last few, there are an endless number of interesting headlines attached to quality stories.  Please go to some of the sites I gave you yesterday and make your own selections.  You might want to make that a daily habit, when you finish the Weather Map study.  I found another big story about permafrost today, which adds more fuel to my latest rant.  If you don’t want to hear more about permafrost, because it is so depressing, I can only beg forgiveness.  I think it is overwhelmingly important to know the reality.  Whatever it means, which is still a little fuzzy, we will have to live with it, and deal with it, and that may not be easy.
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One more digression—this is a big day in the Arctic, because we are right at the point where the sea ice stops melting and begins to freeze again.  This summer’s melt was not as bad as many had feared, but is running almost exactly equal to the average, so far, for the current decade.  This only measures horizontal extent.  Mass calculations may be different.
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Now for my personal choice for story of the day, from Gizmodo.  I don’t know much about Gizmodo, or the story’s author, Maddie Stone, but she does a very nice bit of research in putting it together.  The people she interviewed look quite competent and offer a few details that add depth to how the permafrost problem has come to be, based on close observations made in Alaska.  There is still a lot to learn about how extensively the thawing will proceed, or how quickly, but the stated conclusion is noteworthy—“There’s momentum in the system,” Turetsky said. “And I think we’re not going to be able to stop it.”
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Similar conclusions are voiced by several researchers who do field studies in Northern Europe.  “Their findings suggest that — even with optimistic estimates of future carbon emissions — areas covered by periglacial zones will reduce dramatically by 2050, and they will “almost disappear” by 2100.”  That suggests an extraordinarily rapid rate of thawing of the permafrost layer in these zones.
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One more related story, this one from a post in 2015.  “What’s important about these numbers is that, in theory, we can control deforestation and land use change [and] we can control our fossil fuel emissions — but once permafrost starts to thaw, we cannot control how much carbon dioxide and methane is released by microbes into the atmosphere from thawing permafrost,” Natali says.  (The full potential, over an uncertain period of time, may be greater than what humans have caused to be released in the last two centuries.)
Carl

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