Climate Letter #1727

What exactly is meant by the phrase, “high-altitude water vapor,” or alternatively, “high-altitude precipitable water”?  I have been using these terms with a specific end in mind, but without taking complete care to make a distinction that would eliminate other possible ends, and that should be corrected.  There is in fact a massive amount of precipitable water that rises to an altitude high above the surface but otherwise lives by a very ordinary set of rules.  This is the class that quickly condenses into clouds, can travel over long distances, and before long ends up as rainfall or the like.  It is not instrumental in producing significant warm air anomalies even though it exercises a greenhouse effect that generally accounts for air being warmed enough to offset most of the important albedo effect produced by the clouds that are involved.

The material I am most concerned with is different in many ways and more special than that, and I need to find a more distinctive name for it. Until that happens I can still offer a tighter definition of what makes this material different from everything else that belongs in the “high-altitude” category.  One key point is that its life as a pure gaseous vapor will need to be longer than average and therefore must be spent under conditions where imminent condensation is avoidable for an extended period of time.  There are well-known laws governing condensation, such as the laws embodied in the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, that make it difficult to imagine how those conditions can be met. Depending on its temperature, air will only hold so much water vapor before reaching a saturation point, all in accord with the common principles of relative humidity.

At times I have been tempted to think there might be exceptions to those laws—which is never a good idea when the main law has stood its ground for well over a century—based on everyday observations of “high-flying” water vapor and its substantial effect on air temperatures at the surface. In certain situations these effects include warm anomalies as high as 20C and possibly long-lasting heatwaves that have devastating consequences. Most high-altitude water vapor cannot accomplish such feats because it has readily condensed, apparently unable to avoid the effects of basic principles. Yet the fact remains that some “high-altitude” vapor does not condense so easily, which has to be properly explained in terms that are consistent with every applicable law. There must be something really special about it, and I think there is. I can give you my own opinion, as a layman but this is something that better-trained scientists really need to look into, and I will keep making a case for this to happen.

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The very special breed of water vapor I am referring to is born through evaporation from warm tropical surface waters (25C or better) under a clear or lightly clouded sky, then immediately lifted by updraft winds to altitudes greater than three miles, maybe even five or six, where temperatures are well below freezing.  The vapors are loosely formed into streams, and these streams level off when met by sweeping winds that normally may have relative humidity readings of around 10% or less because air that high up is known to be quite dry as well as cold.  These passing winds can therefore hold much more vapor without meeting any required law of saturation or condensation. Once they have acquired the vapor that has just been lofted up they will dynamically keep right on moving forward, now holding more vapor than before but still below saturation. And there it will stay, because there are no water bodies up that high to evaporate more from. This whole train of physical movement can develop continuously as long as there are updrafts of new vapor and the high winds keep coming to meet them. From this point forward the direction that is taken is regulated by Coriolis effects that always keep these winds headed toward the nearest pole, even as they shift about, as all winds are prone to do, and eventually may be blocked by even stronger jetstream winds. Once blocking occurs clouds can form and rains will finally fall as vapor molecules become compressed and pile into each other, a form of condensation not dependent on temperature.

Carl

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