Climate Letter #952

Newly revised estimates for climate sensitivity have been published.  How much is global temperature expected rise for any doubling of CO2 content in the atmosphere?  There is much disagreement about this in the science community, with the median view right around 3C.  A new research paper finds reasons to believe it could go much higher later on as certain slow moving effects take over.  “The worrisome part is that all the models show there is an amplification of the amount of warming in the future,” he said. The situation might be even worse, as Proistosescu’s work shows climate sensitivity could be as high as 6C.”

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Stephen Hawking, who is not a climate scientist, has even greater fears.  He has revived the old idea of a “runaway greenhouse effect” that could ultimately turn Earth into another Venus.  He puts much of the blame on Trump’s energy policies, which is a bit of hyperbole since Trump doesn’t rule the world and his policies cannot last forever.
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The outlook for Africa’s Sahel desert.  This area, one of the driest of the continent, could become much wetter in just a few years, in keeping with shifts that are known to have happened in the past.  The trouble is that the new weather regime could bring many more devastating storms and floods during the rainy season, known to meteorologists as “mesoscale convective systems”‘  The region is home to more than 100 million people.
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How life is already changing on Pacific islands due to rising seas and worsening storms.  A Hawaiian geologist accepts the possibility of a sea level rise beyond two meters by the end of this century.  Saltwater intrusions are contaminating shallow aquifers that are common to the region.
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Volvo is planning a full transition away from all-gasoline engines, starting in just two years.  “This is about the customer,” Håkan Samuelsson, president and CEO of Volvo said in a statement. “People increasingly demand electrified cars, and we want to respond to our customers’ current and future needs.”
Carl

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