Unusual flooding effects in Denmark. Dramatic increases of more than a meter in coastal flooding are happening with unexpected regularity, attributed to repeated low-pressure systems in the atmosphere.
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A summary of extreme weather events in and around Australia in 2016. Many of the events were unprecedented, showing a peculiar blend of a major El Nino and the warming trend of the globe as a whole.
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A new study projecting the future of the world’s coral reefs. For the average reef, annual bleaching due to warming seas is expected by 2043, and for virtually all of them by the end of the century.
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A review of the recent Nordhaus report. (A link to the full report was published here in CL#808 but no review was available at that time.) William Nordhaus is an economist who has specialized in studies of climate science and its economic policy implications for over twenty years. He builds models using numbers regularly updated by whatever has been agreed upon by mainstream science. The answers he comes up with sound a lot like the things we hear from Kevin Anderson, that the job that is required for policy making is not being done. Thus, “The lack of any tough international carbon tax – which he believes is the most effective policy available – means that sustained growth translates to rising emissions.” He also says the target of 2C is beyond reach if its achievement is left up to implementing reasonably accessible technologies, which sounds much like the gist of the report from Duke University reviewed in yesterday’s Climate Letter. Beyond that, “A target of 2.5C is technically feasible but would require extreme policy measures.” He mostly leaves it up to science to provide a picture of what a 2.5C world would look like and the timing of its arrival, which information is available elsewhere for public review.
Extra comment: A carbon tax strong enough to cause a sharp drop in fossil fuel usage would unavoidably result in reduced economic activity, at least for awhile, or long enough for new technologies to finally prevail. The cap-and-trade type of tax that is often recommended, and likely to be put into effect this year by China, is easily adjusted in ways that avoid that kind of damage and is thus not likely to be sufficiently effective. A stiff sales tax on carbon-emitting products would be more effective but there is no sign of any politician being ready to touch it. Unless you can find an error in the Nordhaus methodology, or foresee a phase change in public opinion, or perhaps some kind of miracle, it is best to plan on warming of 2.5C or more well within the current century.
Carl