Climate Letter #1659

How humans have adapted to drastic changes in climate since the last ice age (The Conversation).  A unique archaeological site in Indonesia has provided a team of researchers with much fascinating information, as written up by two of the members.  They demonstrate how some of the changes which came about very rapidly required a response in the form of entirely new living habits that were successfully accomplished.
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New research claims that a true megadrought in the US western states that scientists have been warning about has already begun (Columbia University).  “A new study says the time has arrived: a megadrought as bad or worse than anything even from known prehistory is very likely in progress, and warming climate is playing a key role…..Earlier studies were largely model projections of the future…We’re no longer looking at projections, but at where we are now. We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we’re on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts…..All of the ancient droughts lasted longer than 19 years—the one that started in the 1200s ran nearly a century—but all began on a similar path to to what is showing up now…..What matters is that it has been made much worse than it would have been because of climate change.  Since temperatures are projected to keep rising, it is likely the drought will continue for the foreseeable future; or fade briefly only to return.”
–Historical dating of the three megadroughts the study is referring to:

Extreme coastal flooding events that are now rarely seen will in this century become more common at an exponential rate due to expected sea level rise (EurekAlert).  A scientific report from Nature Research has found evidence linking these two phenomena in such a way that the damage from this particular effect tends to increase at a much more rapid rate than the underlying cause.  Thus, “The authors’ model predicted that before 2050, current extreme water levels transitioned from 50-year, once-in-a-lifetime flooding events to annual events in 70% of US coastal regions. Before the end of 2100, once-in-a-lifetime extremes were predicted to be exceeded almost daily for 93% of the sites measured…..At the most susceptible sites, along the Hawaiian and Caribbean coast, the rate at which extreme water levels occur may double with every centimetre of sea-level rise.”
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-04/sr-cce041420.php……. The full study has open access at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-62188-4

A great many studies have been made for the purpose of determining to what extent an extreme weather event can be attributed to changes in climate caused by human activity.  Carbon Brief has created an extensive review of how this work is accomplished together with a synopsis of the results.  Also, specific information related to each of 355 extreme events that have occurred around the globe is made available.  One conclusion:  “…of the extreme weather events scientists have studied so far, climate change has made almost 70% of them more likely or more damaging. The majority of these events have been heatwaves, but the fingerprint of climate change has also been felt on drought, heavy rain, wildfires and, indeed, even tropical cyclones.”
https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world

Policies that regularly seek the pursuit of continued economic growth are criticized for doing harm to biodiversity, and seven practical alternatives are offered (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona).  “Taking the last 170 years in the United States as an example, the research team speculates about the meaning of continued economic growth that is clearly associated with biodiversity loss but whose contribution to social progress has become stagnant since the late 1970s.”  The authors make a good argument, but do not explain how control over policymaking can be wrestled away from the shrinking number of beneficiaries of economic growth, who may not agree.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-04/uadb-egi041420.php

Carl

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