A new appraisal of how ice is being lost from Greenland leads to predictions of faster sea level rise (Earth Institute at Columbia University). This new study describes changes in atmospheric patterns that are losing their ability to add new ice to the sheet each year. “The researchers found that while 2019 saw the second-highest amount of runoff from melting ice (2012 was worse), it brought the biggest drops in surface mass balance since record-keeping began in 1948…..the new study identifies exceptional atmospheric circulation patterns that contributed in a major way to the ice sheet’s rapid loss of mass…..Because climate models that project the future melting of the Greenland ice sheet do not currently account for these atmospheric patterns, they may be underestimating future melting by about half.” The full explanation is quite interesting.
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Better methods now available for measuring the amount of melting from submerged parts of glacial ice indicate that the actual rate may be considerably faster than estimated (GlacierHub). The information gathered from field testing done so far is quite limited, but early results provide numbers that are worrisome. “The data gathered by the autonomous kayaks show that ambient melting is a significant contributor to total melting at a glacier’s terminus and represents a large part of the total submarine melt flux. It revealed that ambient melt has been underestimated by a factor of up to 100.” Polar ice sheet glaciers have not yet been tested in this manner, but most likely will be wherever conditions allow doing so.
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A review of numerous studies that have been made about carbon-cycle feedback uncertainties concludes that their net effect on climate change may have been underestimated (Carbon Brief). This rather lengthy and wide-ranging article was written by two experienced scientists, with the help of two others, for the purpose of processing and consolidating the work of dozens of previous studies that could have an unrecognized impact on future climate projections. The central estimate of past studies is similar to those used in IPCC projections. “But, at the high end, the results show these feedbacks could push atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases much higher – meaning more warming – from the same level of emissions…..Analysis for this article shows that feedbacks could result in up to 25% more warming than in the main IPCC projections.” The reasons are clearly explained and worth considering.
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Flood damage along the Mississippi River due to climate change has become intolerable (Phys.org). Control management systems already in place were not constructed to handle the precipitation increases created by rising temperatures, and must be upgraded. “Flooding on the Mississippi River and its tributaries throughout Illinois and the Midwest caused an estimated $6.2 billion in damage across 13 states in 2019…..overwhelmed towns, farms, roads, bridges, levees and dams, contributed to the deaths of four people…..the levees restrict the natural flow of the river, constricting its path and exacerbating flooding downstream, especially as the Midwest has experienced more frequent downpours in recent years.” Those downpours, which are also causing overflow problems in the Great Lakes, are likely to keep increasing as warming continues.
Carl