Climate Letter #1643

A new reconstruction of Earth’s CO2 history over the last 300 million years (Science Direct).  The completed study has not yet been published, nor is there any media publicity available with an evaluation.  I happened upon this advance notice and felt it worth passing on right away.  The written material, brief as it may be, all makes sense.  Also, there is one graphic image, enormously interesting, that can be copied and expanded, which I have done below.  It may well be the most accurate display of its type available today, but that judgment will depend on it first going through a broader vetting process that is sure to come.  The main data line fits very well with numbers I have seen in a number of research studies of recent dating, many of which keep warning us about how close we are to slipping into a catastrophic outcome.   The Eocene study I just wrote about in letters #1634-5-6 is a good example, because it showed how a simple doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial 280 ppm, plus the heating effect of a doubling of methane values already more than accomplished, would be enough to activate ice sheet processes that lead directly to a hothouse climate state when given enough time to fully unfold.  Keep in mind that CO2 is not the only thing that causes the Earth to warm up.  So do methane and other well-mixed greenhouse gases, so do the very important water vapor and albedo feedbacks, so do often poorly recognized orographic changes in land elevation, or vegetatiion changes, or a few more odds and ends that can complicate everything for either better or worse.  CO2 will always stand out as a great igniter, and remains the best control we have over the re-emergence of all the other temperature forcings, but the total impact of those other forcings must not be underestimated.  The chart helps to show why.
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Efforts are being made to restore forests in a number of countries (Deutsche Welle).  This story contains a series of descriptions of ambitious undertakings in eleven different countries, with illustrations.
https://www.dw.com/en/nations-world-tackling-deforestation-with-reforestation-world-forest-day/g-52861802

An argument supporting the use of economic alternatives as an effective means of combating crisis (The Guardian, by Jeff Sparrow).  It’s happening today on a large scale, in response to the coronavirus, overturning well-entrenched ideologies.  The author makes the clearest possible argument in favor of applying the same logic to the climate crisis.  “The Covid-19 catastrophe demonstrates – if any demonstration is needed – that prevention is better than cure. It shows that scientific experts know, by and large, what they’re talking about, and that their modelling accurately predicts real world effects.  The implications for climate change could not be more obvious.  Scientists have told us, over and over again, that a warming planet will deliver increasingly horrific disasters….. it’s simply not credible to say nothing can be done about the rising temperatures.”  And so on.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/26/under-coronavirus-pro-market-ideologies-are-overturned-around-the-world-but-its-too-little-too-late

The latest weekly report from Bill McKibbin in The New Yorker:
https://link.newyorker.com/view/5bdcc3ef2ddf9c58d0e91581bt44g.67c/bea5298d

Carl

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