A new appraisal of methane emissions from coal mining is worrisome (Carbon Brief). The study found that emissions are likely to be running more than double previous estimates, and even higher than amounts attributed to leakage caused by oil and gas production. The researchers found a way to estimate seepage from old mining sites all over the world, something that has largely been ignored in the past. This accounted for most of the overall gain. Since it is very difficult to stop or control this kind of seepage, “emissions from abandoned sites will likely continue growing or at least stay constant, even if dramatic climate action is taken.” (Early in the industrial era, when coal was the main source of energy from fossil fuel, the growth of methane in the atmosphere far outpaced that of CO2. You can easily check the numbers out by using the widget I gave you in the letter of two days ago.)
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The UK’s leading environmental activist, George Monbiot, has a reminder that the globe is facing a number of crises that deserve as much attention and action as the coronavirus (The Guardian). His article includes references to a number of specific pieces of information that are of interest and have either not been widely reported or may have been forgotten, and there are links to all of them. Here is one that many seem to already have forgotten: “Yet, even if every nation keeps its promises under the Paris agreement, which currently seems unlikely, global heating will amount to between 3C and 4C.” That observation can be matched up with another that we have yet to hear much about: “In his forthcoming book, Our Final Warning, Mark Lynas explains what is likely to happen to our food supply with every extra degree of global heating. He finds that extreme danger kicks in somewhere between 3C and 4C above pre-industrial levels. At this point, a series of interlocking impacts threatens to send food production into a death spiral.”
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David Attenborough probably understands the natural world better than anyone else alive. New Scientist magazine caught up with him and got his latest thinking on the messes we have been making. From a brief review of a new film about his life, now being delayed because of the virus: “In the 1930s, 66 per cent of the world was wilderness and the CO2 levels in the atmosphere were around 310 parts per million, says the film. By the time he started recording The Blue Planet in 1997, wilderness was down to 47 per cent and CO2 was at 363ppm. Now, of course, the numbers are much worse: wilderness covers just 23 per cent of the planet, and atmospheric CO2 is at more than 410ppm.” His response to an interviewer: “I’ve got no idea if humanity is going to get through this or not.”
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New findings about the various ways that plants and animals seek to adapt to changes in their preferred temperature (University of Arizona). For one thing the two major groups have remarkably similar tendencies on a broad scale. A number of interesting situational variations are reviewed. One of the more troubling with respect to today’s world: “The authors also found that in both plants and animals, species seem to have more difficulty adapting rapidly to hotter temperatures and drier conditions than to cooler and wetter conditions. Therefore, both plants and animals may have a particularly difficult time adapting to increasing temperatures and droughts related to global warming.”
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How Canadians are investigating prospects for increased food production in the wake of climate change (Reuters). The possibilities in Canada are similar to those in Russia, for both in part because of vast areas where permafrost is melting. “For Canada, that means a potential quadrupling of agricultural land.” A number of possibilities are described, along with questions and potential problems.
Carl