Climate Letter #761

A new study on the risk of megadrought in the American southwest.  The key point is that temperature rise dominates, even if there is an increase in rainfall.  A megadrought is one that is severe and lasts for 35 years or more.  Should a global increase greater than 2C be realized the probability of such a drought in this century approaches 100%.  We are currently on track for 4C.

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As permafrost melts, frozen islands off the coast of Siberia are disappearing.  This post is loaded with spectacular photography, as well as an off-beat geography lesson.  You wouldn’t want to live there.
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Fossil fuel production is a major producer of methane emissions.  The total, which is much higher than previously believed, accounts for between 30 and 45% of annual increases in the atmosphere.  Cutting production therefore would have significant climate benefits on top of those realized by a decline in burning of the fuels.
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Financing for energy storage projects is opening up.  This story explains how and why this is so important for the future of renewable energy.  It is the same for any advanced technology that requires customer financing but doesn’t have a long enough track record to satisfy bankers.  That is now changing, and it is a very big deal.
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An excellent overview of Hansen’s lawsuit arguments.  It’s worth reading, even if you already have familiarity, because of some extra background material.  This is not just a nuisance suit pursued by novices.  It will have to be argued out in full, and best in front of a big audience.
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Here is an potential complication for climate forecasting that cannot be ruled out.  The sun is known to do things once in awhile that are out of the ordinary.
Carl

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