A global temperature update for February 2020 from James Hansen (Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions). The month was only slightly behind the all-time February record set in 2016. What is most interesting about this post is the description of the strong contrast in the warming trends of the northern and southern hemispheres between 1970 and 2020. The full explanation was provided in a major study published in 2016 that attracted much publicity at the time. There is a link to the study, which has open access and is a very interesting read, and a quick summary in the longer paragraph. Also, take a good look at the map in the lower right corner.
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Coronavirus ‘Really Not the Way You Want to Decrease Emissions’ (Inside Climate News). This post is full of thoughts and ideas about the relationship between two major crises we are facing and the various ways humans have responded to each. “As the global economy shudders in reaction to the coronavirus, lessons are emerging about what that response can—and cannot—tell us about fighting climate change.” There is a chart near the end which shows how past recessions, including the Great Recession of 2008, did nothing to slow the basic rate of growth in emissions. The new disease, which does not appear to be quite as serious as some of the worst diseases in history—think smallpox for one, does seem to have unique powers for causing responses in the form of shutdowns of economic activity, precisely the kinds of activity that produce carbon emissions. If this grows and endures it is not difficult to imagine economic consequences eventually going well beyond those of the Great Recession, maybe even as far as a full collapse. That is what many people seem to be fearing more than the disease itself, thereby generating urgent calls for more stimulus, etc. Many scientists believe we should have curbed CO2 growth at about 350 ppm, and that letting it keep rising to where we are today, with more on the way, is nothing but a recipe for disaster. The virus may not be one’s favorite choice as a means to stop the bleeding at this late point in the game, but what if it is the only one that works?
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From The Guardian, a rundown of many of the recent and quite dramatic declines in economic activity around the world which can be blamed directly on the virus. There are no predictions about how much farther this can go. “Analysts say it is too early to know if coronavirus will push global CO2 emissions onto the downward path that is needed if the world is to have any hope of keeping global heating to a relatively safe level of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. That depends on how far the outbreak spreads, and whether the economic effects are prolonged……But even a slowdown would gain time for action – advances in technology, lower renewables prices and more public pressure on governments to change tack. The response to the coronavirus could also demonstrate that radical steps can work.”
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Climate change might have played a role in the emergence of COVID-19 (Inside Climate News). An interview with a public health researcher who has investigated changes in the connection between humans and the animals that are often found to be involved in the spreading of new diseases. “If you look at the emerging infectious diseases that have moved into people from animals or other sources over the last several decades, the vast majority of those are coming from animals. And the majority of those are coming from wild animals. We have transformed life on Earth. We are having a massive effect on how the relationships between all life on Earth operate and also with ourselves. We shouldn’t be surprised that these emerging diseases pop up.” He describes many types of changes, with a focus on how environment and climate are involved.
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Bill McKibben is an expert student of climate science who has been spelling out the reasons for holding the CO2 level below 350 for many decades. He is now writing a wide-ranging newsletter about the climate crisis each week for The New Yorker, free online for anyone who wants to subscribe. Here is the latest copy: