An expanded explanation of the Indian Ocean Dipole and its historical pattern, with a focus on its effects in Australia (The Conversation). This fine article was written by three of the authors of the study referred to by The Guardian as reviewed in yesterday’s letter. The study has limited access but here we have a summary of its important content with much graphic material and the addition of a short video that better describes how the Dipole works, and much more. A key point: “But previous studies, as well as ours, have shown human-caused climate change has shortened the gaps between these episodes, and this trend will continue. This is because climate change is causing the western side of the Indian Ocean to warm faster than in the east, making it easier for positive Indian Ocean Dipole events to establish. In other words, drought-causing positive Indian Ocean Dipole events will become more frequent as our climate continues to warm.” (And they could get worse.)
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Evidence of a truly abrupt change in sea level in just 300 years, starting 11,300 years ago (The University of Hong Kong). The evidence, while robust in character, is also unusual because it is all based on effects due to the isostatic rebound that always occurs in the Earth’s crust directly below a large ice sheet mass when that mass melts away. In this case, between 11,300 and 11,000 years ago the researchers uncovered a rebound of that type in the Svalbard area, caused by a regional meltdown known to have occurred when the Younger Dryas cool period came to an abrupt conclusion. The rebound was estimated at between 40 and 80 meters, which seems like a large number, but that is what those rebounds are like when the melting event is big enough. This one was unusual because it all happened so rapidly. Near Svalbard, sea level declined by a maximum of 250 feet while the rest of the world was being surprised by an abrupt increase that averaged around 20-30 feet.
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A new study expresses deep concern over the speed at which the Amazon rainforest and other major ecosystems are disintegrating (Phys.org). “The Amazon rainforest is nearing a threshold which, once crossed, would see one of the world’s largest and richest ecosystems morph into arid savannah within half-a-century…..Another major ecosystem, Caribbean coral reefs, could die off in only 15 years were it to pass its own point-of-no-return…..The Amazon ecosystem could pass a point-of-no-return as soon as next year…..The modular structure of large ecosystems initially provides resilience against changes such as global warming or forest destruction…..But once a certain threshold is crossed, the same modularity causes the rate at which the system unravels to accelerate.”
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Financial pressures are finally causing the demise of much of the global coal industry (Yale e360). Despite the promises of Donald Trump, “With the fuel unable to compete in most places with natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, the mining and burning of coal is increasingly toxic economically as well as environmentally. Coal mines are becoming “stranded assets” — unlikely ever to pay off the costs of their development. The risks for financiers are becoming too great. Now, even insurance companies are refusing to underwrite coal-fired power plants and coal mining ventures. And without insurance, say gleeful climate campaigners, coal is dead.” With China the situation is different, but at least it shows a weakening for coal power.
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A writer for Forbes wonders about what the coronavirus will ultimately accomplish toward meeting the need to reduce carbon emissions. “The full economic effects of the Coronavirus are not yet known, which is why the European Commission couldn’t factor them into today’s industrial strategy. Until those effects are known, the impacts on global emissions will also be unpredictable. But it may be that future generations look back at Coronavirus as the turning point in global efforts to fight climate change. And they may ask, “what was the Green Deal?”
Carl